Rozhovor s Janem Kubíčkem, členem bankovní rady ČNB
Peter Laca (Bloomberg 11. 12. 2025)
Podle člena bankovní rady Jana Kubíčka je v tuto chvíli pravděpodobnější, že dalším krokem měnové politiky bude zvýšení úrokových sazeb spíše než jejich snížení. Uvedl to v rozhovoru pro agenturu Bloomberg. Zároveň ale upozornil, že tržní očekávání růstu sazeb již v příštím roce mohou být předčasná. V současné době podle něj čelíme nejistému inflačnímu výhledu, který bude ovlivněn i budoucími kroky nové vlády.
J. Kubíček upozornil, že přestože posilující koruna tlumí růst cen zboží, inflace v sektoru služeb zůstává klíčovým rizikem, a to i kvůli pokračujícímu růstu cen nemovitostí. Jádrová inflace je podle něj pro rozhodování o sazbách důležitější než volatilní položky, například ceny potravin.
Tržní očekávání dalšího utažení měnové politiky nedávno zeslábla po zveřejnění nižší listopadové inflace, avšak následný růst globálních výnosů opět posunul tržní sazby výše. J. Kubíček zároveň odmítl možnost, že by domácí ekonomika sama o sobě vytvářela impulzy pro další snižování sazeb, a připustil jej pouze v případě silného externího šoku.
K nejistotám patří i možné změny v regulované složce cen energií, které nová vláda zvažuje. Případné administrativní zlevnění elektřiny by sice jednorázově snížilo inflaci a posunulo by predikovanou trajektorii sazeb níže, centrální banka by však podle J. Kubíčka neměla uvolňovat měnovou politiku kvůli jednorázovým efektům.
Rozhovor (anglicky)
Czech interest rates are more likely to increase than decline, though expectations of a hike next year may be premature, according to central banker Jan Kubicek.
Policymakers face a clouded inflation outlook as a new government is set to pursue measures that may push consumer prices in either direction. While officials have signaled they’ll again hold the benchmark at 3.5% next week, money markets have already shown positioning for monetary tightening as early as next year.
Central bankers have highlighted services inflation, property prices and budget-deficit risks as reasons to maintain what they have called a slightly restrictive monetary stance. But they also have to weigh the effects of global uncertainty for dominant export-oriented industries against an economic expansion driven by rebounding real income fueling household spending.
“In terms of probability for the next step, I see a rate hike as more likely than a cut, but I can’t yet predict the timeframe for when it might happen,” Kubicek said in an interview on Tuesday. The bets on a quarter-point hike in a year’s time, shown in derivatives prices last week, “looked a little bit premature,” he said.
Persistent Czech Services Inflation Remains a Key Risk
While some analysts, including at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., have suggested that more rate cuts may come next year, Kubicek downplayed the potential for such a move.
“I don’t want to rule out the possibility of a further decline in rates, but that would require a strong impulse from abroad,” he said. “I don’t see such an impulse coming from the domestic economy.”
Investors trimmed wagers on Czech tightening following the release of softer-than-expected preliminary November headline inflation last week. But a jump in global yields pulled the Czech forward rate agreements up again on Wednesday.
Czech headline price growth eased to 2.1% last month, but the slowdown was largely driven by volatile food prices that Kubicek said he is “discounting” from his deliberations on monetary policy, considering core inflation as more relevant.
While a stronger koruna is helping to tame the price of goods, services inflation remains elevated and reflects continued growth in property prices. The central bank expects the pace of housing prices to slow, but the property market remains among risks, according to Kubicek.
Services inflation is also fueled by a shift in consumer spending, although the pace should slow in the longer term as the sector is absorbing more workers from industry, a process that’s expected to help ease wage pressures, he said.
After an upside surprise in the second quarter, overall wage growth was more in line with the forecast in the third quarter and it’s expected to slow further next year, the central banker said.
The incoming cabinet, led by billionaire Prime Minister Andrej Babis, has yet to approve its budget as well as measures for curbing energy bills. Still, a potential decrease in the regulated part of electricity prices would have a one-time downside impact on inflation, with possible lower wholesale power prices also curbing costs for businesses.
While such administrative changes would likely be covered by more government borrowing, they would probably push the projected interest-rate path lower, Kubicek said.
“In my opinion, we shouldn’t lower rates because of this one-off effect,” he said. “It might happen that the headline inflation rate drops below 2%. But it would be basically the same type of deviation from the target as when the inflation rate is slightly above 2%.”