Rozhovor s Janem Kubíčkem, členem bankovní rady ČNB
Jan Lopatka (Reuters 11. 9. 2025)
Člen bankovní rady ČNB Jan Kubíček v rozhovoru pro Reuters uvedl, že banka by měla ponechat úrokové sazby beze změny vzhledem k přetrvávajícím inflačním rizikům, mezi něž patří zejména rychlý růst mezd, zvýšené ceny služeb a nejistota ohledně fiskální politiky před říjnovými volbami. Další krok v měnové politice podle něj s vyšší pravděpodobností povede ke zvýšení sazeb, avšak to zatím není na obzoru.
Kubíček upozornil, že inflace se v srpnu držela na 2,5 %, tedy nad cílem ČNB, avšak silnější kurz koruny pomáhá tlumit cenové tlaky. Inflace ve službách se pohybuje zhruba o 1 procentní bod výše než před pandemií a zůstává tak významným faktorem.
V souvislosti se zavedením systému EU ETS2 v roce 2027 odhaduje jeho přímý dopad na ceny zhruba na 0,9 procentního bodu; ČNB však na tento primární efekt nebude reagovat, podobně jako u změn nepřímých daní.
Rozhovor (anglicky)
The Czech central bank should hold interest rates steady amid a range of inflationary risks including rapid wage growth, and its next move – likely at a later time – may be a hike, policymaker Jan Kubicek said in an interview.
Kubicek has been one of the more hawkish of the Czech National Bank board’s seven members, having voted against the last cut in the repo rate, a reduction to 3.50% in May.
He told Reuters that wages, uncertainty over the fiscal policy outlook in view of next month’s parliamentary election, and continued elevated price growth in services were among the reasons not to ease further in a cycle so far totalling 350 basis points in cuts.
On the other hand, a hike was not yet on the horizon either.
“Looking at the end of the year, I do not see it,” Kubicek said of a hike. “If I were to speak in probability terms, I think the likelihood is higher that the next move will be upwards, but I do not know when.”
Asked if rates should stay on hold in the coming months, he said: “Yes, that is how I see it today.”
The bank meets on policy on September 24, and markets expect no change in rates.
Nominal wages jumped by 7.8% in the second quarter.
“I am not panicking, but if the 8% growth rate persists, of course it will be an inflation risk,” Kubicek said.
He said services inflation was now about 1 percentage point higher than in pre-coronavirus times and thus remained an inflation factor but “not some kind of a drama”.
Rising real estate prices have been factored into the bank’s outlook and will only be a problem if the rate of growth does not cool as expected, he said.
Fiscal policy is a concern with a parliamentary election coming on October 3–4 and no parties pledging deficit reductions.
Inflation will also get a lift in 2027 from the introduction of the European Union’s ETS2 carbon emission allowances on fuels and household heating – although the poll-leading ANO party pledges not to implement the scheme.
The direct impact on prices of that could be 0.9 percentage points, Kubicek estimated.
The bank is counting on half of this increase because of possible compensation measures and overall uncertainty, and it will not react to the primary impact, similar to its approach to changes in indirect taxes.
The secondary impact, through a resulting rise in prices of other products and services, is expected at 0.2 percentage points and is already included in the bank’s models, he said.
Headline inflation was at 2.5% in August, above the bank’s 2% target.
The crown is about 2% stronger than the bank assumed, which has helped hold inflation down.
“My take is that the exchange rate is doing the policy restriction work for us a little bit,” Kubicek said.