Rozhovor s Janem Kubíčkem, členem bankovní rady ČNB
Jan Lopatka a Jason Hovet (Reuters 23. 7. 2026)
Jan Kubíček uvedl, že při rozhodování o nastavení úrokových sazeb bude sledovat zejména vývoj mezd, jádrové inflace, úvěrové aktivity, cen nemovitostí a promítání vyšších tržních úrokových sazeb do úvěrových podmínek. „Za sebe nevylučuji, že by do konce roku mohlo dojít ještě k jednomu zvýšení úrokových sazeb,“ řekl člen bankovní rady. Zároveň zdůraznil, že nevidí důvod ke spěchu a že načasování případného dalšího kroku zůstává otevřené.
V rozhovoru dále uvedl, že se začínají objevovat signály zpomalování růstu cen nemovitostí a že by v následujících čtvrtletích mělo postupně zpomalovat i tempo růstu mezd, které v prvním čtvrtletí překvapivě dosáhlo 8,1 %. Sleduje také, zda podniky vyšší náklady nevyužívají ke zvyšování ziskových marží. Data za první čtvrtletí však podle něj takový vývoj nepotvrzují.
Základní úroková míra ČNB, tzv. dvoutýdenní repo sazba, je aktuálně na úrovni 3,75 %. Bankovní rada ČNB ji zvýšila 18. června. Další měnové jednání, na kterém ČNB představí novou makroekonomickou prognózu, je na programu 6. srpna.
Rozhovor (anglicky)
The Czech central bank may raise interest rates again once in the coming months and will likely discuss the possibility of a move in August, but board member Jan Kubicek said he saw no urgency to act fast and market pricing of larger tightening ahead seemed overdone.
Kubicek told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday that he was considering the possibility of one hike sometime by the end of the year as sufficient, while the move itself and its timing were open.
The bank raised its main repo rate in June by 25 basis points, the first tightening in four years.
Kubicek said he was looking at credit growth, core inflation, wage increases, house prices and, so far, limited propagation of higher longer-term rates into loan pricing as factors to watch.
"For me it is open that by the end of the year there may perhaps be one more monetary policy hike," he said, but right now he sees "no urgency".
"I see market rates, which seem to me to be quite strict, but for me to be happy with 3.75% (current rate). I would need to see that the wage dynamic starts to decline, which we expect."
"It would calm me down if we see disinflation in core inflation, because we have been promising ourselves that for a long time, we are still doing so... And it would help me a lot if I see at least an end of acceleration of all types of loans."
The financial market has been pricing in, through forward rate agreements, the chances of up to three 25-point increases by the first quarter of next year.
"I do not see this," said Kubicek.
He said the interbank market may be reflecting technical influences in trading rather than just mirroring expectations of the central bank's steps.
Kubicek said there were signs of the pace of house price growth peaking, while wage increases should also taper off from a surprisingly high 8.1% in the first quarter.
Banks have been under competitive pressure not to pass on higher longer-term rates into mortgages but this may be beginning to happen now, Kubicek said.
Kubicek said that another factor he was watching was whether companies used cost increases to fatten margins, but this was not happening according to first-quarter data, he said.
Czech headline inflation dropped surprisingly steeply to 1.5% year-on-year in June, owing mainly to food prices.
But prices in services, a concern for the bank, continued to rise swiftly, at 4.5%, and core inflation stood at 2.8%.
Kubicek said he did not expect the bank's new quarterly forecast next month to be materially different from the last May update, and the bank "would be happy if" inflation does not exceed the 3% upper boundary of the bank's target band around 2% early next year.