Rozhovor s Janem Fraitem, viceguvernérem ČNB
Jan Lopatka, Jason Hovet (Reuters 27. 1. 2026)
Viceguvernér ČNB Jan Frait v rozhovoru pro agenturu Reuters uvedl, že bankovní rada se již na nadcházejícím měnověpolitickém zasedání může zabývat otázkou mírného snížení úrokových sazeb, a to především v reakci na vnější faktory a vývoj v zahraničí. Zdůraznil však, že v domácím ekonomickém vývoji – oživení ekonomiky, napjatém trhu práce, zrychleném růstu mezd a uvolněné fiskální politice – argumenty pro snižování sazeb nenalézá.
Podle viceguvernéra by mohly úrokové sazby letos zůstat zhruba na současné úrovni, případně mírně klesnout. Prostor pro uvolnění měnové politiky v letošním roce odhadl nejvýše na 50 bazických bodů. Jak konkrétně bude na příštím zasedání hlasovat, zatím nechtěl předjímat – rozhodnutí se bude odvíjet od nové makroekonomické prognózy a debaty bankovní rady.
J. Frait zároveň uvedl, že hlavním tématem nadcházejícího zasedání bude pro něj právě vnější prostředí, včetně vývoje globálních finančních trhů a měnové politiky velkých centrálních bank, které mohou v budoucnu vytvářet tlak na uvolnění měnových podmínek i v Česku.
Plné znění rozhovoru (v angličtině)
The board of the Czech central bank could discuss slight monetary easing at a policy meeting next week due to external factors that may lead large central banks to cut rates, Vice-Governor Jan Frait said in an interview.
Frait told Reuters on Monday the domestic recovery, a tight labour market, wage growth and loose fiscal policy spoke against easing but the external situation could change the picture, although he has not decided how he would vote.
Rates may stay broadly stable this year or dip by at most 50 basis points, the central bank veteran said.
The Czech National Bank (CNB) halved the main repo rate to 3.50% before pausing in May last year.
For some time it seemed the next move could be up, but in December, the board of seven shifted its view of the risks to meeting its 2% inflation target to "neutral", from "inflationary".
"I assume that we will conduct the debate at the next meeting in a similar spirit - to what extent the balance of domestic and external (factors) moves the risks in this or other direction and whether the interest rate environment continues to be adequate," Frait said in an interview.
He said labour market and wage developments were "truly an argument for maintaining relatively higher interest rates."
But the external environment was cause for debate already at the February 5 meeting, where new forecasts will also be debated.
"In my view the external forces are exactly what the meeting will be and should be about... it is a very, very strong set of factors," Frait said.
"We should of course have a pre-emptive policy and we should forecast future trends with a high probability. I do not know if it happens (a cut) and at the same time I am not saying how I myself will vote."
Eye on external environment
Analysts do not expect near-term cuts by the European Central Bank or U.S. Federal Reserve - with the latter possibly easing later this year - but Frait said factors in the global economy and policymaking may be building up for easing.
"For central banks, especially in developed countries, a certain group of factors is accumulating that can induce central banks' reaction, in the future, to various developments by loosening monetary policy on the short end," Frait said.
The factors include growth of longer-term market rates, or signs of imbalances in financial markets, he said.
Frait has correctly predicted the pace of upcoming rate moves at the start of the last two years.
"I am much less certain than ever before for 2026", he said. "I would say that for us, rates will remain roughly where they are, although I do see a certain possibility that they will go marginally lower."
Czech headline inflation, below the bank's forecast at 2.1% in December, could fall a few decimal points below the target due to a government subsidy of energy bills.
The central bank excludes such steps from its decision-making, Frait said. But it may reduce inflation expectations, and has historically influenced inflation-targetting central banks' decisions, he added.