Rozhovor s Janem Fraitem, viceguvernérem ČNB
Peter Laca (Bloomberg 17. 9. 2025)
Viceguvernér Jan Frait v rozhovoru pro Bloomberg uvedl, že v současné situaci nevidí důvod dále snižovat úrokové sazby. Podle něj měnová politika již nepůsobí restriktivně – aktuální nastavení sazeb spolu s kurzem koruny má na ekonomiku spíše neutrální vliv.
J. Frait upozornil, že celkovou inflaci drží na přijatelné úrovni zejména pokles cen energií, což ale nemusí být dlouhodobý jev. Rizikem zůstává růst cen služeb, spojený s rychlým růstem mezd při nižší produktivitě v tomto sektoru, a také stále rychlý růst cen nemovitostí. Česká ekonomika se nyní nachází na úrovni svého potenciálu – růst reálných příjmů, lepší nálada domácností, napjatý trh práce a vyšší vládní výdaje podporují spotřebu a přestávají vytvářet dezinflační tlaky.
Bankovní rada je připravena reagovat na případné šoky ze zahraničí, základním scénářem však zůstává odolná a relativně silná domácí ekonomika. Zvyšování sazeb ale viceguvernér nyní nepovažuje za aktuální téma – připadalo by v úvahu pouze v případě prudkého zrychlení inflace a silného růstu úvěrů, který by se přelil i do cen aktiv.
Plné znění rozhovoru (v angličtině)
Czech policymakers shouldn’t stimulate the economy with more interest rate cuts as persistent inflation risks require cautious steps, a senior central banker said.
The comments from Deputy Governor Jan Frait ahead of the policy meeting next week are likely to cement expectations that borrowing costs will remain on hold at least for a while.
The Czech National Bank held the benchmark rate at 3.5% at the last two meetings, after slashing it by half during an easing cycle that started in late 2023. The bank left all policy options open for the upcoming sessions, with board members highlighting concerns about rapid growth in the cost of housing and services.
While the most recent inflation data were relatively acceptable overall, the core reading that plays a significant role in the board’s deliberations remained at a “less favourable level,” Frait told Bloomberg. In his view, monetary policy is no longer having a restrictive impact.
“The current level of interest rates and the exchange rate are together having a neutral effect on the economy,” Frait said in the interview Tuesday. “I currently don’t see any strong reason why we should disrupt this equilibrium with more rate cuts.”
Money-market prices indicate expectations of stable rates over the next 12 months, although some analysts still see room for more easing. Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. hold one of the most dovish views, expecting one more cut this year and a further decline to the terminal rate of 2.75% in 2026.
Frait pointed out that the headline inflation has been kept at acceptable levels by declining energy prices, which he said “won’t last forever” and is a reason to remain “very cautious.” Services inflation reflects the quick rise in incomes against lower productivity growth in the sector.
Real Estate Boom
The Czech Republic’s red hot property market, where more than half of home purchases are financed without loans, has been another driver of inflation. Still, the central bank expects that a gradual slowdown in nominal wage growth, together with no further decline in mortgage rates, will help cool housing prices, according to Frait.
Economic indicators have confirmed the bank’s recent forecasts, in which real income growth, improving household sentiment and a still tight labor market are all supporting consumption. Combined with higher government expenditure, these factors have brought the economy to its potential, meaning that it has stopped generating disinflationary pressures, said Frait.
Meanwhile, exporters appear to be resilient, he said. Frait doesn’t see the koruna’s appreciating trend — it’s gained 3.5% against the euro and about 19% to the dollar this year — as primarily driven by the interest-rate differential.
The currency strength is in line with fundamentals, such as economic activity, balance of payments, the assets of Czech businesses abroad and the favourable position of the Czech economy in terms of investors’ risk perceptions, he said.
Going forward, the bank board has said it will be prepared to react to potential major shocks from abroad, for instance a significant global economic slowdown or a plunge in demand.
However, that’s not the baseline forecast. “We will be flexible, but our baseline scenario sees a relatively resilient, strong economy, and until we see some major change, there is no reason to preemptively relax monetary policy,” he said.
At the same time, it’s too early to start considering raising interest rates, according to the deputy governor. Such a move would only be triggered by a sharp acceleration in inflation, combined with fast credit growth, both in the private sector and the government, that would spill over into asset prices, he said. “Right now, I’m not thinking about increasing interest rates,” Frait said.