Rozhovor s Jakubem Seidlerem, členem bankovní rady ČNB
Peter Laca (Bloomberg 30. 10. 2025)
ČNB podle člena bankovní rady Jakuba Seidlera může ponechat úrokové sazby stabilní po delší dobu, protože jejich současná úroveň spolu se silnou korunou pomáhá tlumit inflační rizika.
J. Seidler upozornil, že zářijový pokles inflace byl do značné míry dán kolísavými cenami potravin, zatímco růst cen služeb kolem 4,7 % představuje trvalejší inflační riziko. Pokud jde o další kroky ČNB, obě varianty – snížení i zvýšení sazeb – jsou stále otevřené. Nejpravděpodobnějším scénářem je podle něj ale stabilita po delší dobu.
Hlavními proinflačními riziky zůstávají vytrvalý růst cen služeb, vyšší spotřeba domácností a rychlejší růst mezd. Přirozené tempo růstu cen služeb v konvergující ekonomice by mělo být mezi 3,5 a 4 %, dodal J. Seidler. Zmínil také riziko vyššího růstu cen nemovitostí, které by se však mělo v roce 2026 zmírnit kvůli ochlazení hypotečního trhu.
Naopak globální ekonomická nejistota, zejména slabý výkon Německa, hlavního exportního trhu ČR, může být důvodem k dalšímu snížení sazeb, pokud by zpomalení bylo výraznější a domácí inflační tlaky rychle odezněly.
Plné znění rozhovoru (v angličtině)
Czech policymakers may refrain from changing interest rates for an extended period as the current level of borrowing costs and a strong koruna combine to tame inflation risks, according to a central bank board member.
The Czech National Bank is on track to leave the benchmark at 3.5% for a fourth meeting next week, after slashing rates by half during monetary easing that started at the end of 2023. While export-oriented industries may face global headwinds, Jakub Seidler said he sees prices for services as a key domestic inflation risk.
Although headline inflation in September was lower than forecast, this “shouldn’t be overestimated” as it was largely influenced by volatile food prices while the structure remained less favorable, Seidler said. Services price growth hovers around 4.7%, signaling more persistent pressures than previously thought and warranting the current “slightly restrictive” conditions.
“It’s an argument for me that, at the moment, stable rates combined with a relatively stronger exchange rate are delivering monetary conditions that are able to finish the disinflation process,” Seidler said in an interview on Wednesday. The koruna has strengthened 3.4% to the euro so far this year, heading for its biggest annual gain in four years. It’s also one of the best emerging-market performers to the dollar.
Money market prices have recently swung from indicating further reductions in rates to trying to gauge the timing of their first increase, but for now both options remain open, said the 42-year-old former commercial bank economist, who joined the policy board in December last year.
“In my view, the next move with rates can be a cut or a hike, and I see more or less equal odds for either of those two scenarios,” Seidler said. “But the most likely outlook for me is longer-term stability, which could even last throughout next year.”
The main upside inflation risks that could tilt the scales toward a hike include higher services inflation persisting for a longer period of time, combined with stronger household consumption and faster wage growth, according to Seidler.
The central bank in Prague isn’t aiming to bring services inflation to 2%, which is the official target for the headline rate. While faster increases in the cost of services are a usual phenomenon accompanying transition to a more developed economy, Seidler said a natural pace should be between 3.5% and 4%. Persistent services inflation has been fueled by changing consumer behavior, with employment in the sector rising whereas it’s declining in industry. Such a trend is also normal during a convergence process, but it underscores the need for a cautious monetary approach, Seidler said.
Inflation Risks
Another concern is wage growth, which is above levels consistent with meeting the inflation target and represents a risk especially for the cost of services, he added. Still, the central bank sees the wage dynamic slowing next year. Growth in housing prices, which has surprised on the upside this year, remain a risk but should decelerate in 2026 mainly because of a projected slowdown in mortgage lending, Seidler said.
Uncertainty over the global economic situation, especially the recovery in Germany, is a key reason why a further decline in rates still remains a possibility, according to Seidler. The Czech Republic’s main export market is struggling to overcome economic weakness, while Berlin’s planned fiscal stimulus may take longer than initially anticipated.
“Germany is one of the question marks for me about the economic situation abroad and how much it will affect Czech growth,” Seidler said. “That’s why it can’t be ruled out that the next step will still be a cut, if the global slowdown is more pronounced and inflation pressures at home fade away more quickly.”