František Brázdik, Karel Musil, Tomáš Pokorný, Tomáš Šestořád, Jaromír Tonner, Jan Žáček
We present the upgraded version of g3+, the Czech National Bank’s core forecasting model, which became operational in April 2024 and summarizes its additional modifications over 2024. This paper outlines the innovative features of the model and the motivations behind their adoption. The enhancements also reflect the period from 2020 to 2022, which was marked by extraordinary events such as the Covid-19 pandemic and a significant surge in energy commodity prices. The upgraded g3+ now includes, among others, the endogenous decomposition of foreign economic activity into gap and trend components, a refined structure of foreign producer prices, and adjusted links between foreign and domestic economies. In addition, several model parameters have been recalibrated to reflect current and anticipated economic conditions. The introduction of these model changes and parameter adjustments lead to improved forecasting performance relative to the previous version of the model.
JEL kódy: C51, C53, E27, E37, F41
Klíčová slova: Conditional forecast, DSGE, energy, g3+ model, small open economy, two-country model
Vydáno: květen 2025
Ke stažení: CNB WP No. 7/2025 (pdf, 2 MB)