Rozhovor s Janem Procházkou, členem bankovní rady ČNB
Jan Lopatka a Jason Hovet (Reuters 10. 6. 2026)
Na červnovém zasedání čeká bankovní radu podle Jana Procházky vyrovnaná debata o sazbách – na stole je jak ponechání sazeb beze změny, tak jejich zvýšení o 25 bazických bodů. Pro mírné zpřísnění mluví pokračující růst mezd a stále vysoký růst úvěrů, který je ale zastřený efektem předzásobení. Naproti tomu jsou inflační očekávání ukotvená, ekonomika se nepřehřívá a měnová politika spolu s kurzem koruny už sama o sobě působí restriktivně. Pokud by rada k zvýšení sazeb přistoupila, šlo by podle něj o jednorázový krok, nikoli začátek nového cyklu zvyšování sazeb. „Pokud se rozhodneme sazby zvýšit, je lepší udělat to dřív než později. Fiskální politika je inflačním rizikem, ale předvídatelným. Opatření ke snížení cen pohonných hmot a energií ale celkový obraz zamlžují," řekl v rozhovoru pro Reuters člen bankovní rady Jan Procházka.
Rozhovor (anglicky)
The prospect of a bump in Czech inflation alongside a subdued economy will create a balanced debate between stable interest rate policy and a 25-basis point hike at the central bank's meeting next week, board member Jan Prochazka told Reuters.
Prochazka said a hike could act to signal the bank's intention of keeping a lid on inflation, which should peak above 3% in January next year, and it could serve to reflect a spike in wage growth and faster credit expansion.
If the bank is to hike following a year of stability, it should be done now rather than later, he said in an interview.
"I cannot say (now) whether I want a hike or stability. It really is 50-50," he said. "If we are to do something, it is of course always better to do it much sooner."
The Czech National Bank meets on June 18. Markets price in a 25 basis-point hike to the main repo rate CZCBIR=ECI, currently at 3.50%.
Prochazka, who had advocated for the main rate to go to 3.25% in the cycle, said there were arguments for sitting out inflation risks, or alternatively for acting preemptively.
He said a decision for slight tightening may be swung by the outlook for inflation early next year and would not hail the start of a new cycle.
"This is simply so balanced that... this vote could be decided by our inflation expectations for January, February," Prochazka said.
He said he did not want inflation spiking above the main rate early next year, with the bank communicating that rates should remain above inflation.
"If something is going to be done, then I can really imagine one (rate increase), which will be relatively quickly reversed, but you do it because you do not know what will follow," he said, referencing uncertainty over the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil corridor.
Market bets of up to 100 basis points in hikes within a year look unrealistic, he said.
Policy, as well as the exchange rate, were restrictive vis-à-vis economic growth which has been subdued, and inflation expectations were anchored, he said, adding that markets' optimistic view of the global economy could lead to a repricing.
Prochazka said the economy was also a factor as "it simply does not need such high rates."
"Wages, consumption and residential real estate prices are still inflationary risks .. But if these risks do not materialize strongly and inflation expectations return to pre-Hormuz levels, then we are on the safe side and a rate hike would not be strictly necessary."
At home, fiscal policy - showing a higher deficit next year before a decline - was an inflationary risk but was predictable, - although measures to cut fuel prices and energy bills blurred the picture.