Rozhovor s Jakubem Seidlerem, členem bankovní rady ČNB
Jason Hovet (Reuters 9. 3. 2026)
Člen bankovní rady ČNB Jakub Seidler uvedl v rozhovoru pro agenturu Reuters, že v současné situaci se jako nejvhodnější nastavení měnové politiky jeví stabilita úrokových sazeb. Konflikt na Blízkém východě a s ním spojený růst cen ropy sice zvyšují globální nejistotu, ale podle něj zatím nepředstavují tak silný inflační šok, jaký ekonomika zažila po pandemii nebo po ruské invazi na Ukrajinu.
J. Seidler zároveň zdůraznil, že debata o případném zvýšení sazeb je předčasná. Pravděpodobnost, že by inflace kvůli vyšším cenám energií vystoupila mimo toleranční pásmo ČNB, podle něj zůstává nízká.
Pokud by se naopak situace kolem konfliktu s Íránem uklidnila, ceny energií se normalizovaly a pokračovalo zpomalování inflace ve službách, mohla by se podle Seidlera znovu otevřít debata o dalším snižování sazeb. Dosavadní domácí data z roku 2026 podle něj naznačují určité zmírnění inflačních tlaků ve službách.
Rozhovor (anglicky)
Stable Czech interest rates are most appropriate with the US-Israeli war on Iran and surging oil prices a new source of global uncertainty, policymaker Jakub Seidler said on Monday, adding the bar for a hike was very high.
The energy shock seen so far was unlikely at this point to push inflation outside the central bank's 1 percentage-point tolerance band around its 2% target, Seidler said in an interview.
De-escalation in Iran and on energy markets, he said, could even allow the Czech National Bank (CNB) to re-open a debate on easing policy that it held in February.
Since the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran this month, oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel, and markets are shifting rate expectations upwards on inflation worries, even in the Czech Republic.
Czech central banker Seidler said shocks from the Iran conflict so far looked less severe than in the last inflation surge fuelled by post-COVID pandemic supply chain constraints and energy price spikes after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
"In my view, the discussion about a potential CNB hike is very premature and the bar for a hike is very high here," he said.
"Stability of rates seems to be the most appropriate stance."
Seidler: Favourable position with low inflation
Seidler said the economy had functioned before with $100-plus oil.
Secondary impacts of energy prices filtering through to other segments due to higher costs were more risky than primary ones, he said.
The Czech central bank, which next meets on March 19, was in a favourable position, he added.
Headline inflation is below 2% after a government measure cut households' energy bills. That creates a roughly 0.4 percentage point downward impact on inflation that Seidler said was a cushion.
"Even if we stay in a little bit longer-term situation with elevated oil prices and elevated gas prices, I think that the chance that inflation will stay in our tolerance band is very high," he said.
Possible return to easing debate
The Czech central bank halved its main rate to 3.50% between 2023 and May 2025 before pausing due to pressures in services inflation and wages.
Seidler said the bank could re-open a debate held last month on easing if the current global situation de-escalated, "energy prices normalize and we will continue to see (decelerating) momentum in services" inflation.
He said domestic data so far in 2026 has shown some deceleration in underlying inflationary pressures, and the latest wage data was only slightly above forecast.
"If the situation de-escalates, and I will see this momentum slowing down even in forthcoming (services inflation) figures, I can imagine that I will also support (a cut)," he said.