Jiří Gregor, Jan Janků
This paper examines the determinants of early mortgage refinancing in a market dominated by fixed-rate loans with comparatively short reset periods. Drawing on a matched loan-level dataset covering 2015–2024, we estimate panel logit and Cox proportional hazards models to assess how borrower characteristics market conditions, and macroprudential constraints jointly shape refinancing behaviour. The results show that households react strongly to the spread between their contractual mortgage rate and prevailing market rates, as well as to signals of future rate increases, highlighting the refinancing channel as an important conduit for the transmission of monetary policy even in fixed-rate environments. We further document that borrower indebtedness-captured by LTI, LSTI, and LTV-affects refinancing in a nonlinear manner. Moderate levels of these indicators enhance sensitivity to interest-rate incentives and facilitate refinancing, whereas very elevated values limit the borrower’s opportunity or capacity to refinance.
JEL kódy: E52, G21, D14, C41
Klíčová slova: Hazard models, household finance, indebtedness, refinancing
Vydáno: leden 2026
Ke stažení: CNB WP No. 1/2026 (pdf, 5,2 MB)