Research

The objective of the CNB’s economic and financial research work is to provide outputs which help to expand the knowledge base needed for the core activities of the CNB and which are of a high standard on the international scale. The CNB’s research is headed by two divisions – the Economic Research Division in the Monetary Department and the Financial Research Division in the Financial Stability Department. 

The CNB’s economic research is focused on three main areas:

  • monetary policy and analysis of monetary policy transmission,
  • macroeconomic modelling,
  • the real sector and fiscal policy.

The CNB’s financial research is focused on four main areas:

  • developing and refining the methodology for stress testing the sectors of the financial system,
  • developing instruments for identifying and quantifying hidden systemic risks,
  • analysing the transmission of macroprudential and microprudential instruments,
  • understanding the interactions between macroprudential, microprudential and monetary policies.

Research results are disseminated not only in the CNB Working Papers, CNB Research and Policy Notes and CNB Research Bulletin series, but also in boxes in the CNB’s Inflation Reports and Financial Stability Reports, in thematic articles, in economic journals and in blog posts.

The Economic Research Division in the Monetary Department coordinates the preparation of internal reports and public minutes of monetary policy meetings, which are among the CNB’s main communication tools in the monetary policy area. The Financial Research Division in the Financial Stability Department coordinates the preparation of internal standpoints on monetary policy situation reports and contributes to those standpoints, which then serve as inputs to the Bank Board’s monetary policy decision-making process.

Selected Journal Publications by CNB Staff: 2016–2018

  • Adam, T., Benecká, S. and Matějů, J. (2018): Financial Stress and Its Non-Linear Impact on CEE Exchange Rates. Journal of Financial Stability, forthcoming.
  • Babecká Kucharčuková, O., Claeys, P. and Vasicek, B. (2016): Spillover of the ECB’s Monetary Policy Outside the Euro Area: How Different is Conventional from Unconventional Policy? Journal of Policy Modeling, 37(1), 1–40.
  • Babecký, J., Galuščák, K. and Žigraiová, D. (2017): Mechanisms of the State Dependence of Wage Setting: Evidence from a Survey of Czech Firms. Eastern European Economics, 55, 342–356.
  • Baxa, J., Plašil, M. and Vašíček, B. (2016): Inflation and the Steeplechase between Economic Activity Variables: Evidence for G7 Countries. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 16 (3), published online.
  • Bulíř, A., Hurník, J. and Šmídková, K. (2016): What Do Central Banks Know about Inflation Factors? Open Economies Review, 27(4), 795–810.
  • Fiala, T. and Havranek, T. (2017): The Sources of Contagion Risk in a Banking Sector With Foreign Ownership. Economic Modelling, 60(C), 108–121.
  • Franta, M. (2017): Rare Shocks vs. Non-Linearities: What Drives Extreme Events in the Economy? Some Empirical Evidence. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 75(C), 136–157.
  • Franta, M. (2016): The Effect of Non-Linearity Between Credit Conditions and Economic Activity on Density Forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 35(2), 147–166.
  • Franta, M., Havrlant, D. and Rusnák, M. (2016): Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models. Journal of Business Cycle Research, 12(2), 165–185.
  • Franta, M., Libich, J. and Stehlík, P. (2018): Tracking Monetary-Fiscal Interactions Across Time and Space. International Journal of Central Banking, 14(3), forthcoming.
  • Galuščák, K., Hlaváč, P. and Jakubík, P. (2016): Household Resilience to Adverse Macroeconomic Shocks: Evidence from Czech Microdata. International Review of Applied Economics, 30(3), 377–402.
  • Geršl, A., Komárková, Z. and Komárek, L. (2016): Liquidity Stress Testing with Second-Round Effects: Application to the Czech Banking Sector. Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 66(1), 32–49.
  • Hájek, J. and Horváth, R. (2016): The Spillover Effect of Euro Area on Central and Southeastern European Economies: A Global VAR Approach. Open Economies Review, 27(2), 359–385.
  • Hampl, M. and Havránek, T. (2017): Should Monetary Policy Pay Attention to Hose Prices? The Czech National Bank’s Experience. Central Banking Journal, 27(4), 28–37.
  • Havranek, T., Horvath, R. and Zeynalov, A. (2016): Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis. World Development, 88(C), 134–151.
  • Havránek, T. and Iršová, Z. (2016): Do Borders Really Slash Trade? A Meta-Analysis. IMF Economic Review, published online, 1–32.
  • Havránek, T., Iršová, Z. and Herman, D. (2018): Does Daylight Saving Save Energy? A Meta-Analysis. Energy Journal, 39(2), 35–61.
  • Havránek, T., Iršová, Z. and Zeynalova, O. (2018): Measuring the Income Elasticity of Water Demand: The Importance of Publication and Endogeneity Biases. Land Economics, 94(2), 259–283.
  • Havránek, T., Iršová, Z. and Lešanovská, J. (2016): Bank Efficiency and Interest Rate Pass-Through: Evidence from Czech Loan Products. Economic Modelling, 54(C), 153–169.
  • Havránek, T., Iršová, Z. and Schwarz, J. (2016): Dynamic Elasticities of Tax Revenue: Evidence from the Czech Republic. Applied Economics, 48(60), 5866–5881.
  • Havránek, T., Rusnák, M. and Sokolova, A. (2017): Habit Formation in Consumption: A Meta-Analysis. European Economic Review, 95(1), 142–167.
  • Hejlová, H., Hlaváček, M. and Komárek, L. (2017): A Comprehensive Method for House Price Sustainability Assessment in the Czech Republic. Prague Economic Papers, 26(3), 269–285.
  • Hlaváček, M., Novotný, O. and Rusnák, M. (2016): Analysis of the Commercial Property Prices in the Central European Countries. Politická ekonomie, 2016(1), 1–16.
  • Hlédik, T., Holub, T. and Král, P. (2016): The Czech National Bank’s Role since the Global Crisis. Public Finance Quarterly (Hungary), Focus: New Central Bank Policies, 2016/1, 65–93.
  • Joy, M., Rusnák, M., Šmídková, K. and Vašíček, B. (2017): Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for Developed Countries. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 22(1), 44–67.
  • Kadlčáková, N., Komárek, L., Komárková, Z. and Hlaváček, M. (2016): Identification of Asset Price Misalignments on Financial Markets With Extreme Value Theory. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(11), 2595–2609.
  • Komárek, L. and Kadlčáková, N. (2017): Foreign Exchange Market Contagion in Central Europe from the Viewpoint of Extreme Value Theory. Prague Economic Papers, published online.
  • Konečný, T. and Babecká-Kucharčuková, O. (2016): Credit Spreads and the Links between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic. Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 66(4), 302–321.
  • Malovaná, S. and Frait, J. (2017): Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy: Rivals or Teammates? Journal of Financial Stability, 32(C), 1–16.
  • Novotný, F. (2018): Profitability Life Cycle of Foreign Direct Investment: Application to the Czech Republic. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(7), 1623–1634.
  • Pfeifer, L., Holub, L., Pithart, Z. and Hodula, M. (2017): Interaction of Capital and Liquidity Regulation in the Banking Sector (in Czech). Politická ekonomie, 65(5), 525–545.
  • Pfeifer, L., Holub, L., Pithart, Z. and Hodula, M. (2017): Leverage Ratio and its Impact on the Resilience of the Banking Sector and Efficiency of Macroprudential Policy. Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 67(4), 277–299.
  • Plašil, M., Seidler, J. and Hlaváč, P. (2016): A New Measure of the Financial Cycle: Application to the Czech Republic. Eastern European Economics, 54 (4), 296–318.
  • Polák, P. (2017): The productivity paradox: A meta-analysis. Information Economics and Policy, 38, 38–54.
  • Polák, P. (2018): The Euro’s Trade Effect: A Meta-Analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, forthcoming
  • Rusnák, M. (2016): Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time. Economic Modelling, 54(C), 26–39.
  • Schwarz, J. and Pospíšil, M. (2018): Bankruptcy, Investment, and Financial Constraints: Evidence from the Czech Republic. Eastern European Economics, 56(2), 99–121.
  • Skorepa, M. and Komarek, L. (2017): Real Exchange Rates: Are They Dominated by Fundamental Factors? Applied Economic Letters, 24(19), 1389–1392.
  • Žigraiová, D.  and Havránek, T. (2016): Bank Competition And Financial Stability: Much Ado About Nothing? Journal of Economic Surveys, 30(5), 944–981.