Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook aims to pool information about the latest predictions and outlooks of international institutions, selected central banks and Consensus Economics for the euro area, Germany, the USA, the United Kingdom, Japan, China and Russia. Each issue also analyses a selected topic significantly affecting the world economy or having an academic subtext.

September 2023
The key central banks probably reached a notional interest peak at the start of the autumn. They can be expected to start easing monetary policy in the course of 2024. The September GEO also mentions that the global debt burden has fallen slightly according to IMF calculations. The chart in the current issue shows that all the monitored economies except the USA are set to undergo gradual public finance consolidation. The thematic analysis deals mainly with the practical aspects associated with the modelling of the business and financial cycles and presents a comparison of the two cycles for the major global economies – the USA, Japan, the UK, Germany and France. Details (pdf, 1.6 MB)

Unless indicated otherwise, the presented data1) are taken from the official forecasts of Consensus Forecasts (CF), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the European Central Bank (ECB), Deutsche Bundesbank (DBB), the Federal Reserve System (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

1) The CNB’s External Economic Relations Division guarantees that these data are up-to-date, but cannot vouch for their correctness and quality.