The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2023 Q4
Tomáš Adam and Jiří Schwarz, advisers to the Bank Board, discuss the differences in inflation rates in Europe after a common supply shock. They attribute the higher inflation rates in CEE countries to the historical division between East and West, which has led to lower initial prices and higher energy intensity in these regions. The analysis was first published on the OMFIF website.
Presentation by Luboš Komárek and Martin Motl from the External Economic Relations Division for a seminar at the European Central Bank on 27 February 2024 (pdf, 886 kB).
Fourteen domestic and three foreign respondents took part in the February survey of financial market inflation expectations. The data reveal that inflation expectations one year ahead are continuing to fall. The three-year outlook remains stable. The analysts’ economic growth forecasts are less optimistic on average for both this year and the next. A large majority of the respondents meanwhile expect policy rates to be cut by 50 basis points at the CNB Bank Board’s next monetary policy meeting. The forecasts for interbank reference rates and interest rate swap rates were moved downwards again. (pdf, 1 MB)
The February issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories. The analytical section of this issue focuses on 22 inflation-targeting central banks. It compares the forecasting and analytical tools and processes they apply when making monetary policy, using data obtained from a questionnaire survey conducted by the CNB in the second half of 2023.
The CNB’s price stability mandate involves retrospectively assessing the fulfilment of its 2% inflation target once a year. This year’s analysis assesses the fulfilment of the inflation target in 2022 and 2023, when inflation was well above the CNB’s 2% target. The factors underlying the deviation of inflation from the target provide an insight into the origin of the inflation pressures faced by the Czech economy in the past two years. Published as part of Monetary Policy Report – Winter 2024.