CNB forecast – Autumn 2023
This forecast was published on 2 November 2023 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 20 October 2023. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast, which was prepared by economists from the Monetary Department, is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Autumn 2023 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation (%) | 10.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation (%) | 10.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) | -0.4 | 1.2 | 2.8 |
| Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (%) | 7.0 | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| Exchange rate (CZK/EUR) | 24.0 | 24.6 | 24.1 |
Note: Forecast in bold
Headline inflation (in %)
| Headline inflation in 2023 Q4 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2023 | November 2023 | December 2023 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 |
| 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
The drop in annual inflation will halt temporarily in 2023 Q4 due to the statistical effect of the energy savings tariff. Annual consumer price inflation will fall to close to the 2% target at the start of next year.
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (in %)
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation in 2023 Q4 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2023 | November 2023 | December 2023 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 |
| 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be slightly below headline inflation over the entire outlook.
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)
Following a decline this year, the economy will start to grow again in 2024.
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (in %)
Consistent with the baseline scenario of the forecast is a decline in market interest rates from 2023 Q4 onwards.
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR)
Following an initial weakening, the koruna will gradually appreciate again next year.
