CNB forecast – Spring 2023
This forecast was published on 3 May 2023 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 21 April 2023. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Spring 2023 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.
| 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation (%) | 11.2 | 2.1 |
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation (%) | 11.1 | 2.1 |
| Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) | 0.5 | 3.0 |
| Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (%) | 6.8 | 4.6 |
| Exchange rate (CZK/EUR) | 23.7 | 24.3 |
Note: Forecast in bold
Headline inflation (in %)
| Headline inflation in 2023 Q2 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2023 | May 2023 | June 2023 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 |
| 13.2% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
Inflation will continue to fall rapidly this spring and summer, returning close to the 2% target in early 2024.
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (in %)
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation in 2023 Q2 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2023 | May 2023 | June 2023 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 |
| 13.2% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be slightly below headline inflation over the entire outlook.
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)
The economy will be broadly flat year on year in the first half of 2023 and return to growth in the second half of the year.
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (in %)
Consistent with the forecast is market interest rate stability initially, followed by a gradual decline.
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR)
The koruna will depreciate slightly from its initial strong level.
