CNB forecast – Winter 2024
This forecast was published on 8 February 2024 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 26 January 2024. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast, which was prepared by economists from the Monetary Department, is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Winter 2024 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
---|---|---|---|
Headline inflation (%) | 10.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (%) | 10.6 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) | -0.5 | 0.6 | 2.4 |
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (%) | 7.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 |
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR) | 24.0 | 24.6 | 24.3 |
Note: Forecast in bold
Headline inflation (in %)
Headline inflation in 2024 Q1 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
January 2024 | February 2024 | March 2024 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 |
3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% |
Inflation will return close to the 2% target at the start of this year and stay there over the monetary policy horizon.
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (in %)
Monetary policy-relevant inflation in 2024 Q1 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
January 2024 | February 2024 | March 2024 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 |
3.0 % | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% |
Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be slightly below headline inflation over the entire outlook.
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)
The economy will start to grow again this year, but at a very modest pace.
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (in %)
Consistent with the baseline scenario of the forecast is a rapid decline in market interest rates in the course of this year.
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR)
Following a slight initial weakening, the koruna will appreciate modestly again during the year.