CNB forecast – August 2019

Headline inflation

at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Annual headline inflation 2020, Q3 2.2%
2020, Q4 2.1%

Inflation forecast – August 2019 – chart 1

Note: The confidence intervals of the headline inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts and are symmetric. They are widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.

Chart data source – the inflation forecast (xlsx, 100 kB)

in the period July 2019 – September 2019

Indicator 7/19 8/19 9/19
Annual headline inflation 2.7% 2.6% 2.7%

 

Monetary policy-relevant inflation

at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Annual monetary policy-relevant inflation 2020, Q3 2.2%
2020, Q4 2.1%

Inflation forecast – August 2019 – chart 2

Note: The confidence intervals of the monetary policy-relevant inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts and are symmetric. They are widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.

Chart data source – the forecast of monetary policy-relevant inflation (xlsx, 80 kB)

 in the period July 2019 – September 2019

Indicator 7/19 8/19 9/19
Annual monetary policy-relevant inflation 2.8% 2.6% 2.8%

 

Gross domestic product

Indicator      Year       Forecast
Annual growth of real GDP 2019 2.6%
2020 2.9%
2021 3.0%

GDP forecast – August 2019 – chart 3

Note: The confidence intervals of the GDP growth forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts. They are symmetric and linearly widening.

Chart data source – the GDP forecast (xlsx, 98 kB)

 

Interest rates (3M PRIBOR)

Indicator Year Forecast
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR 2019 2.2%
2020 2.0%
2021 2.0%

Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) – August 2019 – chart 4

Note: The confidence intervals of the 3M PRIBOR forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (from the period before exchange rate commitment). They are symmetric, linearly widening and limited below by the zero lower bound.

Chart data source – interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) (xlsx, 107 kB)

 

Exchange rate

Indicator Year Forecast
Exchange rate CZK/EUR 2019 25.50
2020 24.90
2021 24.50

The forecast for exchange rate (CZK/EUR) – August 2019 – chart 5

Note: The confidence intervals of the CZK/EUR exchange rate forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (from the period before exchange rate commitment). They are symmetric and linearly widening.

Chart data source - exchange rate CZK/EUR (xlsx, 94 kB)

 


A detailed description of the current CNB forecast is available in the Inflation Report – III/2019 (will be published on 9th August 2019) and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts (pdf, 3 MB), video.