CNB forecast – Autumn 2022

This forecast was published on 3 November 2022 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 21 October 2022. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Autumn 2022 (to be published on 11 October 2022) and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.

  2022 2023 2024
Headline inflation (%) 15.8 9.1 2.4
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (%) 15.3 8.9 2.3
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) 2.2 -0.7 2.5
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (%) 6.6 7.0 5.3
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR) 24.6 24.8 24.7

Note: Forecast in bold

Headline inflation (in %)

Headline inflation in 2022 Q4 and at the monetary policy horizon (in %)
October 2022 November 2022 December 2022   2024 Q1   2024 Q2
17.4% 18.8% 19.1% 2.7% 2.1%

Inflation will rise above 18% in 2022 Q4. Thereafter, inflation will start to decrease, returning close to the 2% target over the monetary policy horizon, i. e. in the first half of 2024. 

Forecast – Headline inflation – Autumn 2022 – graph 1

Monetary policy-relevant inflation (in %)

Monetary policy-relevant inflation in 2022 Q4 and at the monetary policy horizon (in %)
October 2022 November 2022 December 2022   2024 Q1   2024 Q2
17.2% 17.3% 17.7% 2.6% 2.1%

Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be below headline inflation over the entire outlook.

Forecast – Monetary policy-relevant inflation – Autumn 2022 – graph 2

Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)

The economy will contract in the coming period. The economy will not start to expand fully until 2024.

Forecast – Gross domestic product – Autumn 2022 – graph 3

Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (in %)

Consistent with the forecast is rise in market interest rates initially, followed by a gradual decline in rates next year.

Forecast – Interest rates (3M PRIBOR) – Autumn 2022 – graph 4

Exchange rate (CZK/EUR)

The CZK/EUR exchange rate will be broadly stable in the coming quarters.

Forecast – Exchange rate – Autumn 2022 – graph 5