CNB forecast – Winter 2021

Headline inflation

at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Annual headline inflation 2022, Q1 2.3%
2022, Q2 2.1%

Inflation forecast – February 2021 – chart 1

Note: The confidence intervals of the headline inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts and are symmetric. They are widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.

Chart data source – the inflation forecast (xlsx, 122 kB)

in the period January 2021 – March 2021

Indicator 1/21 2/21 3/21
Annual headline inflation 1.7% 1.7% 2.0%

 

Monetary policy-relevant inflation

at the monetary policy horizon

Indicator Horizon  Forecast
Annual monetary policy-relevant inflation 2022, Q1 2.0%
2022, Q2 2.0%

Inflation forecast – February 2021 – chart 2

Note: The confidence intervals of the monetary policy-relevant inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts and are symmetric. They are widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.

Chart data source – the forecast of monetary policy-relevant inflation (xlsx, 121 kB)

in the period January 2021 – March 2021

Indicator 1/21 2/21 3/21
Annual monetary policy-relevant inflation 1.7% 1.7% 1.9%

 

Gross domestic product

Indicator Year Forecast
Annual growth of real GDP 2020 -5.8%
2021 2.2%
2022 3.8%

GDP forecast – February 2021 – chart 3

Note: The confidence intervals of the GDP growth forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts. They are symmetric and linearly widening.

Chart data source – the GDP forecast (xlsx, 124 kB)

 

Interest rates (3M PRIBOR)

Indicator Year Forecast
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR 2021 0.7%
2022 1.5%

Interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) – February 2021 – chart 4

Note: The confidence intervals of the 3M PRIBOR forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (with the exception of the exchange rate commitment period). They are symmetric, linearly widening and limited below by the zero lower bound.

Chart data source – interest rates forecast (3M PRIBOR) (xlsx, 114 kB)

 

Exchange rate

Indicator Year Forecast
Exchange rate CZK/EUR 2021 25.8
2022 24.9

The forecast for exchange rate (CZK/EUR) – February 2021 – chart 5

Note: The confidence intervals of the CZK/EUR exchange rate reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (with the exception of the exchange rate commitment period). They are symmetric and linearly widening.

Chart data source - exchange rate CZK/EUR (xlsx, 109 kB)

 


A detailed description of the current CNB forecast is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Winter 2021 (to be published on 12 February 2021) and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts (pdf, 9 MB).