CNB forecast – Spring 2025

This forecast was published on 7 May 2025 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 25 April 2025. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast, which was prepared by economists from the Monetary Department, is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Spring 2025 (to be published on 16 May 2025) and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.

  2025 2026
Headline inflation (%) 2.5 2.2
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (%) 2.3 2.0
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) 2.0 2.1
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (%) 3.2 2.8
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR) 25.2 25.3

Note: Forecast in bold

Headline inflation (in %)

Headline inflation in 2025 Q2 and at the monetary policy horizon
April 2025 May 2025 June 2025 2026 Q2 2026 Q3
2.0% 2.3% 2.8% 2.2% 2.1%

Inflation will be slightly above the 2% target in 2025 and very close to it over the monetary policy horizon.

Forecast – Headline inflation – Spring 2025 – graph 1

Monetary policy-relevant inflation (in %)

Monetary policy-relevant inflation in 2025 Q2 and at the monetary policy horizon
April 2025 May 2025 June 2025 2026 Q2 2026 Q3
1.8% 2.1% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0%

Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be slightly below headline inflation over the entire outlook horizon.

Forecast – Monetary policy-relevant inflation – Spring 2025 – graph 2

Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)

Growth in domestic economic activity will be around 2%.

Forecast – Gross domestic product – Spring 2025 – graph 3

Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (in %)

Consistent with the forecast is a decline in interest rates in 2025 Q2.

Forecast – Interest rates (3M PRIBOR) – Spring 2025 – graph 4

Exchange rate (CZK/EUR)

The koruna is depreciating slightly over the outlook horizon.

Forecast – Exchange rate – Spring 2025 – graph 5