CNB forecast – Winter 2024

This forecast was published on 8 February 2024 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 26 January 2024. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast, which was prepared by economists from the Monetary Department, is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Winter 2024 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.

  2023 2024 2025
Headline inflation (%) 10.7 2.6 2.0
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (%) 10.6 2.5 1.7
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) -0.5 0.6 2.4
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (%) 7.1 4.0 2.6
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR) 24.0 24.6 24.3

Note: Forecast in bold

Headline inflation (in %)

Headline inflation in 2024 Q1 and at the monetary policy horizon
January 2024 February 2024 March 2024 2025 Q1 2025 Q2
3.0% 2.8% 2.9% 1.7% 1.9%

Inflation will return close to the 2% target at the start of this year and stay there over the monetary policy horizon.

Forecast – Headline inflation – Winter 2024 – graph 1

Monetary policy-relevant inflation (in %)

Monetary policy-relevant  inflation in 2024 Q1 and at the monetary policy horizon
January 2024 February 2024 March 2024   2025 Q1   2025 Q2
3.0 % 2.7% 2.8% 1.5% 1.7%

Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be slightly below headline inflation over the entire outlook.

Forecast – Monetary policy-relevant inflation – Winter 2024 – graph 2

Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)

The economy will start to grow again this year, but at a very modest pace.

Forecast – Gross domestic product – Winter 2024 – graph 3

Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (in %)

Consistent with the baseline scenario of the forecast is a rapid decline in market interest rates in the course of this year.

Forecast – Interest rates (3M PRIBOR) – Winter 2024 – graph 4

Exchange rate (CZK/EUR)

Following a slight initial weakening, the koruna will appreciate modestly again during the year.

Forecast – Exchange rate – Winter 2024 – graph 5