CNB forecast – Spring 2023

This forecast was published on 3 May 2023 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 21 April 2023. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Spring 2023 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.

  2023 2024
Headline inflation (%) 11.2 2.1
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (%) 11.1 2.1
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) 0.5 3.0
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (%) 6.8 4.6
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR) 23.7 24.3

Note: Forecast in bold

Headline inflation (in %)

Headline inflation in 2023 Q2 and at the monetary policy horizon
April 2023 May 2023 June 2023   2024 Q2   2024 Q3
13.2% 11.6% 10.1% 2.1% 2.0%

Inflation will continue to fall rapidly this spring and summer, returning close to the 2% target in early 2024.

Forecast – Headline inflation – Spring 2023 – graph 1

Monetary policy-relevant inflation (in %)

Monetary policy-relevant inflation in 2023 Q2 and at the monetary policy horizon
April 2023 May 2023 June 2023 2024 Q2 2024 Q3
13.2% 11.5% 10.0% 2.1% 1.9%

Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be slightly below headline inflation over the entire outlook.

Forecast – Monetary policy-relevant inflation – Spring 2023 – graph 2

Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)

The economy will be broadly flat year on year in the first half of 2023 and return to growth in the second half of the year.

Forecast – Gross domestic product – Spring 2023 – graph 3

Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (in %)

Consistent with the forecast is market interest rate stability initially, followed by a gradual decline.

Forecast – Interest rates (3M PRIBOR) – Spring 2023 – graph 4

Exchange rate (CZK/EUR)

The koruna will depreciate slightly from its initial strong level.

Forecast – Exchange rate – Spring 2023 – graph 5