CNB forecast – Winter 2025
This forecast was published on 6 February 2025 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 24 January 2025. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast, which was prepared by economists from the Monetary Department, is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Winter 2025 (to be published on 14 February 2025) and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation (%) | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation (%) | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (%) | 5.0 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| Exchange rate (CZK/EUR) | 25.1 | 25.2 | 25.4 |
Note: Forecast in bold
Headline inflation (in %)
| Headline inflation in 2025 Q1 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2025 | February 2025 | March 2025 | 2026 Q1 | 2026 Q2 |
| 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
Inflation will be slightly above the 2% target in 2025 and very close to it over the monetary policy horizon.
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (in %)
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation in 2025 Q1 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2025 | February 2025 | March 2025 | 2026 Q1 | 2026 Q2 |
| 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be slightly below headline inflation over the entire outlook horizon.
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)
Growth in domestic economic activity will accelerate.
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (in %)
Consistent with the forecast is a continued decline in short-term market interest rates, followed by broadly stable rates from mid-2025 onwards.
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR)
The koruna is broadly flat over the outlook horizon.
