Inflation decreases significantly further in line with the forecast in July 2023

The CNB comments on the July 2023 inflation figures

According to figures released today, the price level increased by 8.8% year on year in July 2023. Inflation thus slowed significantly further, but remained well above the upper boundary of the tolerance band around the CNB’s target. Consumer prices adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes (monetary policy-relevant inflation) rose by 8.6% year on year in July.

Inflation was just 0.1 percentage point lower in July than the CNB’s summer forecast. This was due mainly to slower growth in food prices. Core inflation was also slightly lower. Somewhat faster growth in administered prices affected the deviation from the forecast in the opposite direction. Fuel prices were in line with the forecast.

July 2023 year-on-year in %
MPR Summer 2023 actual value
CPI 8.9 8.8
Administered prices 21.9 22.5
First-round impacts of changes to indirect taxes 0.2 0.2
Adjusted for changes to indirect taxes    
Prices of food, beverages, tobacco 9.0 8.5
Core inflation 6.9 6.8
Fuel prices -26.1 -26.8
Monetary policy-relevant inflation 8.7 8.6

Core inflation slowed further in July. It has been falling gradually since October 2022, reflecting a fading of growth in prices of foreign inputs and a cooling of domestic demand. The latter is acting against a further increase in the profit margins of producers, retailers and service providers. Growth in prices of both goods and services slowed. The decline in services price inflation is being driven mainly by a continued rapid decrease in the contribution of imputed rent. This reflects a slowdown in construction price inflation and stabilisation of new residential property prices due to higher interest rates.

Annual food price inflation decreased to single figures in July. The decline was due to falling world agricultural commodity prices and domestic agricultural producer prices, as well as subdued consumer demand. The latter is illustrated by a continuing decline in real retail sales of food. Annual administered price inflation remains strong but continued to slow in July. Despite a slight month-on-month increase, fuel prices continued to decline sharply year on year in July as a result of last year’s high prices due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The observed price developments bear out the expectations of the summer forecast that inflation will continue to fall sharply during summer. Annual inflation will slow until September. The downward trend in annual inflation will temporarily halt in October, but only as a result of the statistical effect of the energy savings tariff introduced at the end of last year. After its fade-out, inflation will fall sharply to close to the CNB’s 2% target early next year.

Jakub Matějů, Deputy Executive Director, Monetary Department