Presentation by Petr Král, Executive Director of the CNB Monetary Department, at the Erste CEE Investor Roadshow on 21 September 2021: CNB’s Forecast (Monetary Policy Report Summer 2021). (pdf, 4 MB)
Presentation by CNB Deputy Governor Tomáš Nidetzký for the American Chamber of Commerce roundtable held on 17 September 2021: “So far the ECB isn’t planning to react much to high inflation, as it expects it to return to the target itself. The Czech situation is different: we don’t need reasons to start tightening. We are now thinking more about how fast we should raise rates and to which level.” (pdf, 342 kB)
The reporting of non-bank investment firms in the area of prudential rules is currently undergoing major changes, and this area will be covered again from 30 September 2021.The Capital, Risk Exposures and Capital Ratios tables have therefore not been updated since 30 June 2021. Owing to changes in the structure of statements, the data for management companies and investment funds will be available next week.
T. Adam, O. Michálek, A. Michl and E. Slezáková introduce the Rushin, a weekly index of Czech economic activity. The index is based on alternative, high-frequency indicators and standard, low-frequency macroeconomic data.
Inflation is rising in most of the countries we monitor, exceeding the central bank’s target in many of them. The Hungarian and Czech central banks have tightened monetary policy by increasing interest rates, while the Norwegian central bank is likely to raise rates at its September meeting. Other central banks are either reducing or planning to reduce their support programmes. However, the economic situation will continue to be shaped in the period ahead by the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. The current Spotlight focuses on the inflation target tolerance band from the perspective of several recent studies. In our Selected Speech, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel presents the outcomes of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy strategy review. (pdf, 767 kB)
M. Franta and J. Libich put forward a novel macro-financial empirical modelling framework that can examine the tails of distributions of macroeconomic variables and the implied risks. Their examination strongly points to post-2008 unconventional monetary policies (quantitative easing) as a potential source of elevated long-run downside tail risk.