Inflation Report – II/2018

I. Summary (xlsx, 125 kB)
II. The forecast, its changes and risks
- II.1 Developments abroad and external assumptions of the forecast (xlsx, 314 kB)
  - II.1.1 Economic developments abroad
  - BOX 1 Wage growth in the euro area (xlsx, 109 kB)
  - II.1.2 Price developments abroad
  - II.1.3 Financial developments abroad
- II.2 The forecast (xlsx, 323 kB)
  - II.2.1 Inflation and monetary policy
  - II.2.2 Costs and the labour market
  - II.2.3 Economic activity
  - II.2.4 The balance of payments
  - II.2.5 Fiscal developments
- II.3 Comparison with the previous forecast (xlsx, 143 kB)
- II.4 Risks and uncertainties of the forecast (xlsx, 68 kB)
  - II.4.1 Risks perceived by the CNB
  - II.4.2 Risks signalled by other entities’ forecasts
III. Current economic developments
- III.1 Price developments (xlsx, 454 kB)
  - III.1.1 Fulfilment of the inflation target
  - BOX 2 Sources of the deviations of inflation from the CNB’s 2% target (xlsx, 70 kB)
  - III.1.2 Consumer prices and property prices
  - III.1.3 Import prices and producer prices
- III.2 Economic developments (xlsx, 274 kB)
  - III.2.1 The cyclical position of the economy
  - III.2.2 The expenditure side of the economy
  - III.2.3 The output side of the economy
- III.3 The labour market (xlsx, 547 kB)
  - III.3.1 Employment and unemployment
  - III.3.2 Wages and productivity
- III.4 Financial and monetary developments (xlsx, 813 kB)
  - III.4.1 Monetary policy and interest rates
  - BOX 3 The impact of the CNB’s interest rate hikes on client rates (xlsx, 135 kB)
  - III.4.2 The exchange rate
  - III.4.3 Credit
  - III.4.4 Money