CNB forecast – Winter 2023
This forecast was published on 2 February 2023 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 20 January 2023. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Winter 2023 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation (%) | 15.1 | 10.8 | 2.1 |
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation (%) | 14.6 | 10.6 | 2.1 |
| Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) | 2.5 | -0.3 | 2.2 |
| Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (%) | 6.3 | 7.0 | 4.8 |
| Exchange rate (CZK/EUR) | 24.6 | 24.5 | 24.6 |
Note: Forecast in bold
Headline inflation (in %)
| Headline inflation in 2023 Q1 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2023 | February 2023 | March 2023 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 |
| 17.6% | 16.5% | 14.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% |
Inflation will rise temporarily in 2023 Q1 and then start to fall, returning to the 2% target in the first half of 2024.
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (in %)
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation in 2023 Q1 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2023 | February 2023 | March 2023 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 |
| 17.6% | 16.4% | 14.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% |
Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be slightly below headline inflation over the entire outlook.
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)
The economy will fall slightly in the period ahead. The economy will not start to expand y-o-y until the end of 2023.
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (in %)
Consistent with the forecast is a rise in market interest rates initially, followed by a gradual decline.
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR)
Following an initial strengthening, the koruna will depreciate slightly this year and appreciate again in 2024.
