Growth in economic activity comes in slightly above CNB forecast
According to the CZSO’s estimate released today, GDP adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects rose by 2.8% year on year in 2010 Q3. In quarter-on-quarter terms, it was up by 1%. This increase in economic activity is higher than the current CNB forecast – by 0.1 percentage point in year-on-year terms and by 0.2 percentage point in quarter-on-quarter terms. The small discrepancy in the CNB forecast error for these two figures is due to a revision of past data in the quarterly GDP series performed by the CZSO in connection with the recent publication of the full set of annual national accounts.
The slightly higher annual GDP growth compared to the forecast was due to stronger-than-forecasted additions to inventories. As a result, total investment exceeded the CNB’s expectations, although investment in fixed capital increased in line with the forecast, which had assumed a significant investment impulse due to the construction of photovoltaic power stations. By contrast, household consumption was in line with the CNB forecast. Government consumption declined slightly, whereas the CNB had expected weak growth. The growth rates of exports and imports of goods and services were considerably above the CNB forecast, with net exports deteriorating more significantly than the CNB had expected.
Overall, the CNB’s expectations that annual GDP growth would continue to pick up pace were confirmed in Q3. The current CNB forecast expects the economy to grow by 2.3% this year. In 2011, output growth will slow to 1.2% as a result of fiscal consolidation, a slowdown in external demand growth and the unwinding of the effects of restocking and investment in solar power stations. A renewed – and more robust – acceleration in economic growth will occur in 2012 as domestic consumption recovers and external demand growth picks up pace.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2010 Q3
Growth in economic activity comes in slightly above CNB forecast
According to the CZSO’s estimate released today, GDP adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects rose by 2.8% year on year in 2010 Q3. In quarter-on-quarter terms, it was up by 1%. This increase in economic activity is higher than the current CNB forecast – by 0.1 percentage point in year-on-year terms and by 0.2 percentage point in quarter-on-quarter terms. The small discrepancy in the CNB forecast error for these two figures is due to a revision of past data in the quarterly GDP series performed by the CZSO in connection with the recent publication of the full set of annual national accounts.
The slightly higher annual GDP growth compared to the forecast was due to stronger-than-forecasted additions to inventories. As a result, total investment exceeded the CNB’s expectations, although investment in fixed capital increased in line with the forecast, which had assumed a significant investment impulse due to the construction of photovoltaic power stations. By contrast, household consumption was in line with the CNB forecast. Government consumption declined slightly, whereas the CNB had expected weak growth. The growth rates of exports and imports of goods and services were considerably above the CNB forecast, with net exports deteriorating more significantly than the CNB had expected.
Overall, the CNB’s expectations that annual GDP growth would continue to pick up pace were confirmed in Q3. The current CNB forecast expects the economy to grow by 2.3% this year. In 2011, output growth will slow to 1.2% as a result of fiscal consolidation, a slowdown in external demand growth and the unwinding of the effects of restocking and investment in solar power stations. A renewed – and more robust – acceleration in economic growth will occur in 2012 as domestic consumption recovers and external demand growth picks up pace.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department