The CNB comments on the April 2010 inflation figures
Inflation comes in above the CNB forecast
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 1.1% year on year in April 2010. Inflation thus got to the lower half of the CNB tolerance band of the inflation target around 2% for the first time. Monetary-policy relevant inflation, i.e. inflation adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes, returned to above zero, reaching 0.1%.
Annual headline inflation was 0.2 percentage point higher in April 2010 than the CNB’ s current forecast. Though the central bank forecasted a moderate pick-up in annual CPI inflation in April, in reality it was more striking. The is due mainly to higher-than-expected growth in fuel prices, which responded to world oil and petrol prices on European stock exchanges only with minimal delays. Food prices were also slightly higher than predicted. In contrast, the forecast for regulated prices, impacts of indirect taxes and adjusted inflation excluding fuels proved to be accurate. Adjusted inflation excluding fuels remains markedly negative in year-on-year terms, reflecting thus the current anti-inflationary effect of import prices and subdued inflationary pressures from the domestic economy.
The deviation of actual inflation from the CNB forecast has been so far modest and in addition it concerns mostly commodity prices, which are generally volatile, and so no doubt is cast on the forecast in general by figures released today. Headline inflation will gradually rise this year up to slightly above the CNB target of 2%, owing, among other thins, to the effect of indirect tax changes. In 20101, inflation will fall modestly below the target. Monetary-policy relevant inflation will be below headline inflation at first, and at the monetary policy inflation it will approach the target from below.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the April 2010 inflation figures
Inflation comes in above the CNB forecast
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 1.1% year on year in April 2010. Inflation thus got to the lower half of the CNB tolerance band of the inflation target around 2% for the first time. Monetary-policy relevant inflation, i.e. inflation adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes, returned to above zero, reaching 0.1%.
Annual headline inflation was 0.2 percentage point higher in April 2010 than the CNB’ s current forecast. Though the central bank forecasted a moderate pick-up in annual CPI inflation in April, in reality it was more striking. The is due mainly to higher-than-expected growth in fuel prices, which responded to world oil and petrol prices on European stock exchanges only with minimal delays. Food prices were also slightly higher than predicted. In contrast, the forecast for regulated prices, impacts of indirect taxes and adjusted inflation excluding fuels proved to be accurate. Adjusted inflation excluding fuels remains markedly negative in year-on-year terms, reflecting thus the current anti-inflationary effect of import prices and subdued inflationary pressures from the domestic economy.
The deviation of actual inflation from the CNB forecast has been so far modest and in addition it concerns mostly commodity prices, which are generally volatile, and so no doubt is cast on the forecast in general by figures released today. Headline inflation will gradually rise this year up to slightly above the CNB target of 2%, owing, among other thins, to the effect of indirect tax changes. In 20101, inflation will fall modestly below the target. Monetary-policy relevant inflation will be below headline inflation at first, and at the monetary policy inflation it will approach the target from below.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department