The CNB comments on the November 2010 inflation figures
Inflation comes in only slightly below the CNB forecast in November
According to figures released today, the price level rose by 2% year on year in November 2010. Headline inflation was thus the same as in October, standing at the CNB’s inflation target level for the third consecutive month. As in September and October, monetary-policy relevant inflation, i.e. inflation adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes, remained close to the lower boundary of the tolerance band around the inflation target, at 0.9%.
Annual headline inflation was 0.1 percentage point lower in November 2010 than the CNB’s current forecast. The deviation of the actual figure from the forecast was due mainly to slower-than-expected annual growth in food prices. This, however, reflected developments in October, whereas higher-than-expected month-on-month price growth in this segment in November reduced the error in the CNB’s forecast. Annual growth in regulated prices and annual adjusted inflation excluding fuels were also slightly lower in November than forecasted by the CNB. By contrast, fuel prices grew rather faster than the CNB had expected.
The November data confirm that annual headline inflation will be near to the inflation target at the end of 2010. According to the CNB’s forecast, headline inflation should stay very close to the target over the next two years. Monetary-policy relevant inflation should rise further and approach the CNB’s target in the first half of 2011.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the November 2010 inflation figures
Inflation comes in only slightly below the CNB forecast in November
According to figures released today, the price level rose by 2% year on year in November 2010. Headline inflation was thus the same as in October, standing at the CNB’s inflation target level for the third consecutive month. As in September and October, monetary-policy relevant inflation, i.e. inflation adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes, remained close to the lower boundary of the tolerance band around the inflation target, at 0.9%.
Annual headline inflation was 0.1 percentage point lower in November 2010 than the CNB’s current forecast. The deviation of the actual figure from the forecast was due mainly to slower-than-expected annual growth in food prices. This, however, reflected developments in October, whereas higher-than-expected month-on-month price growth in this segment in November reduced the error in the CNB’s forecast. Annual growth in regulated prices and annual adjusted inflation excluding fuels were also slightly lower in November than forecasted by the CNB. By contrast, fuel prices grew rather faster than the CNB had expected.
The November data confirm that annual headline inflation will be near to the inflation target at the end of 2010. According to the CNB’s forecast, headline inflation should stay very close to the target over the next two years. Monetary-policy relevant inflation should rise further and approach the CNB’s target in the first half of 2011.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department