The CNB comments on the September 2009 inflation figures
Inflation comes in below the CNB forecast in September
According to figures released today, annual inflation was zero in September 2009, i.e. the price level was the same as in September 2008. This means that it moved well below the lower boundary of the tolerance band set by the CNB around its target of 3%.
Annual headline inflation in September 2009 was 0.5 percentage point lower than the current CNB forecast. Part of this deviation is attributable to previous months’ developments. The deviation in the September inflation was due to food prices and adjusted inflation excluding fuels, which decreased more than forecasted. Food prices thus started to show a stronger lagged response to the long-term significant decline in agricultural producer prices. Within adjusted inflation excluding fuels, annual growth in prices of nontradables (i.e. mostly services) continued slowing and the strong annual fall in prices of tradables (i.e. primarily goods) persisted. By contrast, fuel prices were higher than forecasted, reflecting the development of oil prices on world markets. Regulated prices developed roughly in line with the forecast
Although the CNB forecast expected a slowdown in inflation in Q3, the actual decline was larger. Annual inflation will thus probably turn slightly negative in October. However, inflation should not decline further in the remaining months of this year. It should start returning to the new inflation target of 2% in the second half of 2010.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the September 2009 inflation figures
Inflation comes in below the CNB forecast in September
According to figures released today, annual inflation was zero in September 2009, i.e. the price level was the same as in September 2008. This means that it moved well below the lower boundary of the tolerance band set by the CNB around its target of 3%.
Annual headline inflation in September 2009 was 0.5 percentage point lower than the current CNB forecast. Part of this deviation is attributable to previous months’ developments. The deviation in the September inflation was due to food prices and adjusted inflation excluding fuels, which decreased more than forecasted. Food prices thus started to show a stronger lagged response to the long-term significant decline in agricultural producer prices. Within adjusted inflation excluding fuels, annual growth in prices of nontradables (i.e. mostly services) continued slowing and the strong annual fall in prices of tradables (i.e. primarily goods) persisted. By contrast, fuel prices were higher than forecasted, reflecting the development of oil prices on world markets. Regulated prices developed roughly in line with the forecast
Although the CNB forecast expected a slowdown in inflation in Q3, the actual decline was larger. Annual inflation will thus probably turn slightly negative in October. However, inflation should not decline further in the remaining months of this year. It should start returning to the new inflation target of 2% in the second half of 2010.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department