The CNB comments on the June 2009 inflation figures
Annual inflation comes in slightly above CNB forecast in June
According to figures released today, annual inflation was 1.2% in June 2009, falling slightly compared to May (1.3%). This means that it was again below the lower boundary of the tolerance band set by the CNB around its target of 3%. Monetary-policy relevant inflation, i.e. inflation adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes, was also below this band. At 1.2%, monetary-policy relevant inflation remained unchanged in June, and was the same as headline inflation, since the first-round effects of past changes to indirect taxes had unwound completely.
The price level was unchanged from the previous month. The highest increases were recorded for prices of fuels and potatoes, whereas prices of food, particularly bread, flour and some fruit and vegetables, saw the biggest declines.
The same consumer basket items were behind the deviation of annual inflation from the latest CNB forecast. Fuel prices grew faster than forecasted owing to higher-than-expected world prices of oil and petrol. By contrast, food prices saw a slower increase, which corresponds to the stronger-than-forecasted annual fall in agricultural producer prices. Overall, the effect of higher fuel prices prevailed and headline annual inflation thus slightly exceeded the forecasted 1% price growth in June. Annual growth in regulated prices and adjusted inflation excluding fuels were fully in line with the forecast.
The deviation of inflation from the forecast can be assessed as negligible, and was mostly attributable to commodity prices. Overall, the assumption of the CNB forecast regarding a gradual fall in inflation during this year has been materialising. In 2010, inflation should increase gradually and reach the new 2% inflation target at the end of the year.
Tomáš Holub Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the June 2009 inflation figures
Annual inflation comes in slightly above CNB forecast in June
According to figures released today, annual inflation was 1.2% in June 2009, falling slightly compared to May (1.3%). This means that it was again below the lower boundary of the tolerance band set by the CNB around its target of 3%. Monetary-policy relevant inflation, i.e. inflation adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes, was also below this band. At 1.2%, monetary-policy relevant inflation remained unchanged in June, and was the same as headline inflation, since the first-round effects of past changes to indirect taxes had unwound completely.
The price level was unchanged from the previous month. The highest increases were recorded for prices of fuels and potatoes, whereas prices of food, particularly bread, flour and some fruit and vegetables, saw the biggest declines.
The same consumer basket items were behind the deviation of annual inflation from the latest CNB forecast. Fuel prices grew faster than forecasted owing to higher-than-expected world prices of oil and petrol. By contrast, food prices saw a slower increase, which corresponds to the stronger-than-forecasted annual fall in agricultural producer prices. Overall, the effect of higher fuel prices prevailed and headline annual inflation thus slightly exceeded the forecasted 1% price growth in June. Annual growth in regulated prices and adjusted inflation excluding fuels were fully in line with the forecast.
The deviation of inflation from the forecast can be assessed as negligible, and was mostly attributable to commodity prices. Overall, the assumption of the CNB forecast regarding a gradual fall in inflation during this year has been materialising. In 2010, inflation should increase gradually and reach the new 2% inflation target at the end of the year.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department