The economy slows down by more than forecasted by the CNB
According to the CZSO’s estimate released today, GDP adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects rose by 4.2% year on year and by 0.9% quarter on quarter in 2008 Q3. Together with the estimate for the current quarter, the CZSO reduced the growth estimate for the individual quarters of the previous year based on the full set of annual national accounts for 2007, with a total downward effect of 0.6 percentage point on the full-year growth. Similarly, the growth estimate for 2008 Q1 was reduced by 0.5 percentage point.
In quarter-on-quarter terms, the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth in 2008 Q3 (0.9%) was 0.2 percentage point lower than forecasted by the CNB (1.1%). Owing to this deviation and the above revision of the GDP time series, the reported annual growth (4.2%) was 0.5 percentage point lower than the CNB’s current forecast (4.7%).
Deviations from the CNB’s forecast were also recorded in the structure of the economic growth. Real growth of household consumption was somewhat lower than expected by the CNB, whereas that of government consumption was significantly faster than expected. Despite having been expected to rise slightly, gross fixed capital formation recorded a decline, due to significantly lower additions to inventories, whereas fixed investment increased by slightly more than predicted by the CNB. The growth rates of both exports and imports of goods and services were markedly lower than forecasted by the CNB. Overall, however, the significantly positive contribution of net exports to annual GDP growth in 2008 Q3 was broadly in line with the CNB’s expectations. The dampening effects of the stronger exchange rate of the koruna and cooling external demand can be expected to feed through to net exports starting from the final quarter of this year.
Gross value added at constant prices rose by 4.6% year on year. This was mainly due to industrial sectors, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. In recent periods, however, the annual growth rate has been slowing noticeably, in particular in manufacturing, owing to unfavourable external demand. The contribution of the smaller-volume wholesale and retail trade sector to GDP growth was almost the same. That sector recorded growth of 16.1%. Above-average growth in value added at constant prices was also recorded by agriculture, probably due, among other things, to the above-average harvest this year.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2008 Q3
The economy slows down by more than forecasted by the CNB
According to the CZSO’s estimate released today, GDP adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects rose by 4.2% year on year and by 0.9% quarter on quarter in 2008 Q3. Together with the estimate for the current quarter, the CZSO reduced the growth estimate for the individual quarters of the previous year based on the full set of annual national accounts for 2007, with a total downward effect of 0.6 percentage point on the full-year growth. Similarly, the growth estimate for 2008 Q1 was reduced by 0.5 percentage point.
In quarter-on-quarter terms, the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth in 2008 Q3 (0.9%) was 0.2 percentage point lower than forecasted by the CNB (1.1%). Owing to this deviation and the above revision of the GDP time series, the reported annual growth (4.2%) was 0.5 percentage point lower than the CNB’s current forecast (4.7%).
Deviations from the CNB’s forecast were also recorded in the structure of the economic growth. Real growth of household consumption was somewhat lower than expected by the CNB, whereas that of government consumption was significantly faster than expected. Despite having been expected to rise slightly, gross fixed capital formation recorded a decline, due to significantly lower additions to inventories, whereas fixed investment increased by slightly more than predicted by the CNB. The growth rates of both exports and imports of goods and services were markedly lower than forecasted by the CNB. Overall, however, the significantly positive contribution of net exports to annual GDP growth in 2008 Q3 was broadly in line with the CNB’s expectations. The dampening effects of the stronger exchange rate of the koruna and cooling external demand can be expected to feed through to net exports starting from the final quarter of this year.
Gross value added at constant prices rose by 4.6% year on year. This was mainly due to industrial sectors, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. In recent periods, however, the annual growth rate has been slowing noticeably, in particular in manufacturing, owing to unfavourable external demand. The contribution of the smaller-volume wholesale and retail trade sector to GDP growth was almost the same. That sector recorded growth of 16.1%. Above-average growth in value added at constant prices was also recorded by agriculture, probably due, among other things, to the above-average harvest this year.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department