According to the CZSO’s estimate released today, GDP adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects rose by 4.6% year on year and by 0.9% quarter on quarter in 2008 Q2. The annual rate of growth was slightly (0.1 percentage point) higher than the CZSO’s preliminary estimate dating from 14 August this year. The CZSO also revised its Q1 estimate to 5.4% year on year. GDP growth in 2008 H1 overall was 5.0%.
The seasonally adjusted annual real GDP growth in 2008 Q2 (4.6%) was only 0.1 percentage point lower than the CNB’s current forecast. In quarter-on-quarter terms, the outturn in 2008 Q2 (0.9%) was also 0.1 percentage point lower than forecasted by the CNB (1.0%).
Some deviations from the CNB’s forecast were recorded in the structure of the economic growth. Real growth of household consumption was somewhat faster than expected by the CNB, whereas that of government consumption was slower than expected. Gross fixed capital formation fell strongly owing to lower additions to inventories, while fixed investment growth was in line with the CNB’s forecast. Growth in exports of goods and services was higher than forecasted, whereas growth in imports was lower (probably also due to extraordinarily low additions to inventories). This resulted in much better-than-expected net exports. The dampening effects of the strong exchange rate of the koruna and cooling external demand can be expected to feed through to the foreign trade figures with a lag.
Gross value added at constant prices rose by 4.6% year on year. This was chiefly due to manufacturing, which, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, accounted for two-thirds of total gross value added growth. Wholesale and retail trade, transport and services also contributed to the gross value added growth to some extent. Agriculture remained below last year’s level.
Petr Vojtíšek, Deputy Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2008 Q2
According to the CZSO’s estimate released today, GDP adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects rose by 4.6% year on year and by 0.9% quarter on quarter in 2008 Q2. The annual rate of growth was slightly (0.1 percentage point) higher than the CZSO’s preliminary estimate dating from 14 August this year. The CZSO also revised its Q1 estimate to 5.4% year on year. GDP growth in 2008 H1 overall was 5.0%.
The seasonally adjusted annual real GDP growth in 2008 Q2 (4.6%) was only 0.1 percentage point lower than the CNB’s current forecast. In quarter-on-quarter terms, the outturn in 2008 Q2 (0.9%) was also 0.1 percentage point lower than forecasted by the CNB (1.0%).
Some deviations from the CNB’s forecast were recorded in the structure of the economic growth. Real growth of household consumption was somewhat faster than expected by the CNB, whereas that of government consumption was slower than expected. Gross fixed capital formation fell strongly owing to lower additions to inventories, while fixed investment growth was in line with the CNB’s forecast. Growth in exports of goods and services was higher than forecasted, whereas growth in imports was lower (probably also due to extraordinarily low additions to inventories). This resulted in much better-than-expected net exports. The dampening effects of the strong exchange rate of the koruna and cooling external demand can be expected to feed through to the foreign trade figures with a lag.
Gross value added at constant prices rose by 4.6% year on year. This was chiefly due to manufacturing, which, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, accounted for two-thirds of total gross value added growth. Wholesale and retail trade, transport and services also contributed to the gross value added growth to some extent. Agriculture remained below last year’s level.
Petr Vojtíšek, Deputy Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department