According to the CZSO’s preliminary estimate released today, real GDP increased by 6.0% year on
year in Q3. Adjusted for seasonal and working day effects, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 1.4%.
Together with the estimate for Q3, the CZSO revised selected quarterly indicators based on the time
series of annual national accounts for 2004–2006. The Q1 GDP estimate remained unchanged (at 6.4%),
but the Q2 estimate was increased from 6.0% to 6.3%.
The year-on-year figure for 2007 Q3 is
slightly (0.1 percentage point) lower than the CNB’s October forecast. The same applies to the
quarter-on-quarter change.
Likewise, only partial deviations from the CNB forecast were recorded in the structure of
economic growth. In line with CNB expectations, there was further rapid growth in household
consumption and fixed investment. The rates of growth of both these demand side components lagged
only slightly behind the CNB forecast. Government consumption decreased slightly year on year in
Q3, whereas the CNB forecast had expected a modest rise. In line with the CNB’s October forecast,
there was continued very rapid growth in foreign trade turnover in goods and services. Net exports
improved slightly year on year, whereas the CNB had expected them to be flat.
According to the CZSO, the 5.7% year-on-year growth in gross value added at constant prices was
due mainly to three industries: manufacturing (+9.8% – linked with the launch of new production
facilities primarily in export-oriented industries), wholesale and retail trade (+10.3%) and
business services (+13.4%). These developments reflect the gradually changing structure of economic
growth, with the tertiary sector starting to show a more marked contribution.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2007 Q3
Economic growth in line with CNB forecast
According to the CZSO’s preliminary estimate released today, real GDP increased by 6.0% year on year in Q3. Adjusted for seasonal and working day effects, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 1.4%. Together with the estimate for Q3, the CZSO revised selected quarterly indicators based on the time series of annual national accounts for 2004–2006. The Q1 GDP estimate remained unchanged (at 6.4%), but the Q2 estimate was increased from 6.0% to 6.3%.
The year-on-year figure for 2007 Q3 is slightly (0.1 percentage point) lower than the CNB’s October forecast. The same applies to the quarter-on-quarter change.Likewise, only partial deviations from the CNB forecast were recorded in the structure of economic growth. In line with CNB expectations, there was further rapid growth in household consumption and fixed investment. The rates of growth of both these demand side components lagged only slightly behind the CNB forecast. Government consumption decreased slightly year on year in Q3, whereas the CNB forecast had expected a modest rise. In line with the CNB’s October forecast, there was continued very rapid growth in foreign trade turnover in goods and services. Net exports improved slightly year on year, whereas the CNB had expected them to be flat.
According to the CZSO, the 5.7% year-on-year growth in gross value added at constant prices was due mainly to three industries: manufacturing (+9.8% – linked with the launch of new production facilities primarily in export-oriented industries), wholesale and retail trade (+10.3%) and business services (+13.4%). These developments reflect the gradually changing structure of economic growth, with the tertiary sector starting to show a more marked contribution.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department