According to the CZSO's preliminary estimate released today, real GDP increased by 6.1% year on
year in 2007 Q1. Seasonally and working-day adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 1.5%. On 7
June, the CZSO also performed its regular revision of the annual national accounts for 2004 and
2005. This year's revision moreover included methodological and material changes associated with
the monitoring of international income and expenditures for services. This revision also affected
the related quarterly indicators of year-on-year GDP growth over the past three years.
The year-on-year figure for 2007 Q1 is slightly (0.3 percentage point) higher than the CNB's
April forecast. The quarter-on-quarter change was a mere 0.1 percentage point higher than the CNB
had expected.
Partial deviations from the CNB forecast were recorded in the structure of economic growth. In
line with CNB expectations, there was a further increase in household consumption growth, although
the rate of growth outpaced the CNB forecast, reaching the long-unseen level of 6.7% in 2007 Q1. By
contrast, government consumption was entirely in line with the CNB outlook, recording negligible
year-on-year growth. On the other hand, the CNB's assumption of a stable rapid increase in gross
fixed capital investment, whose growth rate unexpectedly slowed sharply to 1.5% from its previous
high level, did not materialise. This deviation, however, was more than offset by a sizeable
increase in inventory investment. In line with the CNB's April forecast, there was continued rapid
growth in foreign trade turnover growth in goods and services. However, faster growth in real
imports of goods and services over that in exports led to a slight year-on-year narrowing of the
net export surplus, whereas the CNB had expected a slight widening.
On the gross value added formation side, rapid growth was again recorded in manufacturing in
2007 Q1, linked with the launching of new facilities, particularly in export-oriented industries.
However, construction and wholesale and retail trade also contributed significantly to the GDP
growth. Construction recorded well above average growth (17.8%) due to the mild winter. On the
other hand, the same mild winter negatively affected value added in the electricity, gas and heat
supply industry, which recorded a year-on-year fall of more than 40%.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2007 Q1
Economic growth in line with CNB forecast
According to the CZSO's preliminary estimate released today, real GDP increased by 6.1% year on year in 2007 Q1. Seasonally and working-day adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 1.5%. On 7 June, the CZSO also performed its regular revision of the annual national accounts for 2004 and 2005. This year's revision moreover included methodological and material changes associated with the monitoring of international income and expenditures for services. This revision also affected the related quarterly indicators of year-on-year GDP growth over the past three years.
The year-on-year figure for 2007 Q1 is slightly (0.3 percentage point) higher than the CNB's April forecast. The quarter-on-quarter change was a mere 0.1 percentage point higher than the CNB had expected.
Partial deviations from the CNB forecast were recorded in the structure of economic growth. In line with CNB expectations, there was a further increase in household consumption growth, although the rate of growth outpaced the CNB forecast, reaching the long-unseen level of 6.7% in 2007 Q1. By contrast, government consumption was entirely in line with the CNB outlook, recording negligible year-on-year growth. On the other hand, the CNB's assumption of a stable rapid increase in gross fixed capital investment, whose growth rate unexpectedly slowed sharply to 1.5% from its previous high level, did not materialise. This deviation, however, was more than offset by a sizeable increase in inventory investment. In line with the CNB's April forecast, there was continued rapid growth in foreign trade turnover growth in goods and services. However, faster growth in real imports of goods and services over that in exports led to a slight year-on-year narrowing of the net export surplus, whereas the CNB had expected a slight widening.
On the gross value added formation side, rapid growth was again recorded in manufacturing in 2007 Q1, linked with the launching of new facilities, particularly in export-oriented industries. However, construction and wholesale and retail trade also contributed significantly to the GDP growth. Construction recorded well above average growth (17.8%) due to the mild winter. On the other hand, the same mild winter negatively affected value added in the electricity, gas and heat supply industry, which recorded a year-on-year fall of more than 40%.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department