The CNB comments on the September 2007 inflation figures
Inflation comes in just below the CNB forecast
According to figures released today, annual inflation rose to 2.8% in September 2007, from 2.4%
in August. This means that it is in the lower half of the tolerance band set by the CNB around its
target of 3%. The contribution of the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes to annual
inflation was more than 1 percentage point. Inflation adjusted for these effects - 'monetary
policy-relevant inflation" - thus increased to roughly 1.8% in September.
In month-on-month terms, the price level declined by 0.3% in September. This was due in
particular to a decline in prices of package holidays, prices in transport and telecommunications
and prices of some food items. By contrast, increases were recorded chiefly for regulated rents,
prices of solid fuels and natural gas, prices of new seasonal models of clothing and footwear, and,
with the new school year starting, prices in the education category. Growth in prices of tobacco
products - generated by previous changes to excise duties - also continued, albeit with less
intensity.
Annual inflation in September 2007 was about 0.1 percentage point lower than the CNB's July
forecast. This deviation is still due to lower adjusted inflation excluding fuels, although its
deviation from the forecast moderated somewhat compared to August. By contrast, growth in food
prices, including the effect of the changes to indirect taxes, was higher than forecasted. Fuel
prices were also slightly higher than forecasted.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the September 2007 inflation figures
Inflation comes in just below the CNB forecast
According to figures released today, annual inflation rose to 2.8% in September 2007, from 2.4% in August. This means that it is in the lower half of the tolerance band set by the CNB around its target of 3%. The contribution of the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes to annual inflation was more than 1 percentage point. Inflation adjusted for these effects - 'monetary policy-relevant inflation" - thus increased to roughly 1.8% in September.
In month-on-month terms, the price level declined by 0.3% in September. This was due in particular to a decline in prices of package holidays, prices in transport and telecommunications and prices of some food items. By contrast, increases were recorded chiefly for regulated rents, prices of solid fuels and natural gas, prices of new seasonal models of clothing and footwear, and, with the new school year starting, prices in the education category. Growth in prices of tobacco products - generated by previous changes to excise duties - also continued, albeit with less intensity.
Annual inflation in September 2007 was about 0.1 percentage point lower than the CNB's July forecast. This deviation is still due to lower adjusted inflation excluding fuels, although its deviation from the forecast moderated somewhat compared to August. By contrast, growth in food prices, including the effect of the changes to indirect taxes, was higher than forecasted. Fuel prices were also slightly higher than forecasted.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department