According to the CZSO's preliminary estimate, real GDP grew by 5.8% year on year in 2006 Q3. The
H1 figures were revised downwards slightly. The seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth
was 1.4%.
The published annual figure is exactly in line with the CNB's October forecast, and the
quarter-on-quarter growth was only slightly higher than forecasted. The economic growth structure
was also largely consistent with the CNB forecast.
The figures confirmed the decrease in the contribution of the foreign trade balance to GDP
growth recorded in Q2. Net exports improved by just CZK 2.9 billion year on year. By contrast, the
shares of household final consumption expenditure and investment in GDP growth are rising.
Household consumption rose by 4.0% year on year, just as forecasted. However, the 2.6% annual fall
in government consumption had not been expected by the forecast. Growth in fixed investment, and in
particular inventory investment, was slightly higher than forecasted.
On the value added side, manufacturing is still recording particularly fast growth. This growth
is linked with the creation of new facilities primarily in export-oriented industries. However,
some service industries, particularly wholesale and retail trade, also contributed significantly to
the GDP growth.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2006 Q3
Economic growth matches CNB forecast exactly
According to the CZSO's preliminary estimate, real GDP grew by 5.8% year on year in 2006 Q3. The H1 figures were revised downwards slightly. The seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 1.4%.
The published annual figure is exactly in line with the CNB's October forecast, and the quarter-on-quarter growth was only slightly higher than forecasted. The economic growth structure was also largely consistent with the CNB forecast.
The figures confirmed the decrease in the contribution of the foreign trade balance to GDP growth recorded in Q2. Net exports improved by just CZK 2.9 billion year on year. By contrast, the shares of household final consumption expenditure and investment in GDP growth are rising. Household consumption rose by 4.0% year on year, just as forecasted. However, the 2.6% annual fall in government consumption had not been expected by the forecast. Growth in fixed investment, and in particular inventory investment, was slightly higher than forecasted.
On the value added side, manufacturing is still recording particularly fast growth. This growth is linked with the creation of new facilities primarily in export-oriented industries. However, some service industries, particularly wholesale and retail trade, also contributed significantly to the GDP growth.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department