The CNB comments on the September 2006 inflation figures
Inflation slightly below CNB forecast
According to figures released today, annual inflation fell from 3.1% in August to 2.7% in
September 2006. Nevertheless, it is still close to the CNB's 3% target.
In month-on-month terms, the price level dropped by 0.7 percentage point in September. Many
prices showed usual seasonal movements. Prices of package holiday fell in particular, in
connection with the end of the main tourist season, while prices of education and clothing
increased. Food prices recorded seasonal movements in both directions. Furthermore, worth
mentioning is the fading rise in bread prices and the opposite effect of a decline in fuel prices,
reflecting price developments on oil product world markets.
The annual inflation figure is 0.1 percentage point below the CNB's July forecast. In contrast
to the forecast, the April excise duty increase has yet to pass through to tobacco product prices,
which is the main deviation acting towards lower inflation. Regulated prices, fuel prices and
adjusted inflation excluding fuels were in line with the forecast. By contrast, food prices were
higher than forecasted. However, in contrast to previous months they did not pick up further in
September. The deviation from the forecast thus decreased this month. To sum up, we can say that
inflation was very close to the CNB's forecast in the past quarter.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the September 2006 inflation figures
Inflation slightly below CNB forecast
According to figures released today, annual inflation fell from 3.1% in August to 2.7% in September 2006. Nevertheless, it is still close to the CNB's 3% target.
In month-on-month terms, the price level dropped by 0.7 percentage point in September. Many prices showed usual seasonal movements. Prices of package holiday fell in particular, in connection with the end of the main tourist season, while prices of education and clothing increased. Food prices recorded seasonal movements in both directions. Furthermore, worth mentioning is the fading rise in bread prices and the opposite effect of a decline in fuel prices, reflecting price developments on oil product world markets.
The annual inflation figure is 0.1 percentage point below the CNB's July forecast. In contrast to the forecast, the April excise duty increase has yet to pass through to tobacco product prices, which is the main deviation acting towards lower inflation. Regulated prices, fuel prices and adjusted inflation excluding fuels were in line with the forecast. By contrast, food prices were higher than forecasted. However, in contrast to previous months they did not pick up further in September. The deviation from the forecast thus decreased this month. To sum up, we can say that inflation was very close to the CNB's forecast in the past quarter.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department