According to the CZSO's preliminary estimate,
GDP increased by 5.1% year on year in Q2.This figure is higher than the estimate in the
CNB's July forecast, which had predicted a slight slowdown to 4.2%.In line with the CNB forecast, total
consumption growth strengthened in Q2, owing to a pick-up in private consumption and a moderate
recovery in government consumption.In contrast, fixed investment growth slowed to
a lower level than had been forecasted, with additions to inventories being considerably lower as
well.Overall, therefore, domestic demand lagged
behind expectations.
The faster growth was thus driven by the trade
balance.Although annual real export growth slowed
substantially, the net export deficit continued to decrease year on year.The favourable result, which was better than
forecasted by the CNB, was assisted by virtually unchanged real imports.Underlying this was,
inter alia, a fall in investment, especially in
inventories.
Together with its latest estimates, the CZSO
also published revised data for Q1.According to the preliminary estimates, GDP
growth had started to slow somewhat this year, whereas the revised data, together with the estimate
for Q2, signal, by contrast, a continuing upward trend in growth.This fast growth has so far not been
accompanied by imbalances in the form of demand-pull inflationary pressures or a widening of the
current account deficit.
Tomáš Holub,Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics
Department
The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2005 Q2
Growth is higher than forecasted by the CNB
According to the CZSO's preliminary estimate, GDP increased by 5.1% year on year in Q2. This figure is higher than the estimate in the CNB's July forecast, which had predicted a slight slowdown to 4.2%. In line with the CNB forecast, total consumption growth strengthened in Q2, owing to a pick-up in private consumption and a moderate recovery in government consumption. In contrast, fixed investment growth slowed to a lower level than had been forecasted, with additions to inventories being considerably lower as well. Overall, therefore, domestic demand lagged behind expectations.
The faster growth was thus driven by the trade balance. Although annual real export growth slowed substantially, the net export deficit continued to decrease year on year. The favourable result, which was better than forecasted by the CNB, was assisted by virtually unchanged real imports. Underlying this was, inter alia, a fall in investment, especially in inventories.
Together with its latest estimates, the CZSO also published revised data for Q1. According to the preliminary estimates, GDP growth had started to slow somewhat this year, whereas the revised data, together with the estimate for Q2, signal, by contrast, a continuing upward trend in growth. This fast growth has so far not been accompanied by imbalances in the form of demand-pull inflationary pressures or a widening of the current account deficit.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department