The CNB comments on the October 2005 inflation figures
Inflation in line with CNB forecast in October
According to figures released today, annual inflation reached 2.6% in October. Inflation was
again affected primarily by administered prices. The rise in prices of other consumer basket items
remained subdued.
In month-on-month terms, the price level increased by 0.9% compared to September. The CNB's
October forecast had expected this growth, but differed in its estimate of the structure of the
rise. A larger rise in administered prices (3.7% month on month in October) fostered higher
inflation. Conversely, slightly lower than forecasted growth was recorded for cigarette prices,
which had yet to be affected by the July rise in excise duty on cigarettes. Adjusted inflation
excluding fuels was slightly lower as well. The month-on-month decline of 2% in fuel prices had
been fully expected by the forecast.
Overall, we can say that despite the slight deviations in the structure of October's inflation
from the assumptions of the CNB's October forecast, the data released today confirm the overall
message of the forecast in the sense of the non-existence of demand-pull inflationary pressures.
The rise in administered prices chiefly reflects the high world energy prices and, within the
consumer basket, is concentrated primarily in the area of housing costs.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the October 2005 inflation figures
Inflation in line with CNB forecast in October
According to figures released today, annual inflation reached 2.6% in October. Inflation was again affected primarily by administered prices. The rise in prices of other consumer basket items remained subdued.
In month-on-month terms, the price level increased by 0.9% compared to September. The CNB's October forecast had expected this growth, but differed in its estimate of the structure of the rise. A larger rise in administered prices (3.7% month on month in October) fostered higher inflation. Conversely, slightly lower than forecasted growth was recorded for cigarette prices, which had yet to be affected by the July rise in excise duty on cigarettes. Adjusted inflation excluding fuels was slightly lower as well. The month-on-month decline of 2% in fuel prices had been fully expected by the forecast.
Overall, we can say that despite the slight deviations in the structure of October's inflation from the assumptions of the CNB's October forecast, the data released today confirm the overall message of the forecast in the sense of the non-existence of demand-pull inflationary pressures. The rise in administered prices chiefly reflects the high world energy prices and, within the consumer basket, is concentrated primarily in the area of housing costs.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department