The CNB comments on the September 2005 inflation figures
Pick-up in petrol prices takes inflation towards the CNB's forecast
According to figures released today, annual inflation increased to 2.2% in September,
returning to the CNB's target band for the first time since the beginning of the year. This rise
was due largely to a pick-up in fuel prices of more than 20%.
In month-on-month terms, the price level decreased by 0.3 percentage point compared to
August. This fall was due to the regular seasonal drop in the prices of package holidays and a
moderate decline in food prices. However, the month-on-month decrease was smaller than forecasted
by the CNB in July, as fuel prices recorded a sharp rise (of 11.6%). This jump in prices was
connected with oil price developments on world markets and had been signalled in September by the
weekly fuel price surveys conducted by the Czech Statistical Office.
Owing to the rise in fuel prices, annual inflation returned to near the CNB's July forecast,
after two months of lower-than-expected inflation outturns. As regards annual inflation, the
higher-than-expected rise in fuel prices has been offset so far by a lag in the impact of the
excise duty changes on prices of tobacco products and by lower adjusted inflation excluding fuels.
The evolution of adjusted inflation excluding fuels suggests that there are still no demand-pull
inflation pressures in the economy. The appreciation of the koruna since the end of 2004 is also
having an anti-inflationary effect.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the September 2005 inflation figures
Pick-up in petrol prices takes inflation towards the CNB's forecast
According to figures released today, annual inflation increased to 2.2% in September, returning to the CNB's target band for the first time since the beginning of the year. This rise was due largely to a pick-up in fuel prices of more than 20%.
In month-on-month terms, the price level decreased by 0.3 percentage point compared to August. This fall was due to the regular seasonal drop in the prices of package holidays and a moderate decline in food prices. However, the month-on-month decrease was smaller than forecasted by the CNB in July, as fuel prices recorded a sharp rise (of 11.6%). This jump in prices was connected with oil price developments on world markets and had been signalled in September by the weekly fuel price surveys conducted by the Czech Statistical Office.
Owing to the rise in fuel prices, annual inflation returned to near the CNB's July forecast, after two months of lower-than-expected inflation outturns. As regards annual inflation, the higher-than-expected rise in fuel prices has been offset so far by a lag in the impact of the excise duty changes on prices of tobacco products and by lower adjusted inflation excluding fuels. The evolution of adjusted inflation excluding fuels suggests that there are still no demand-pull inflation pressures in the economy. The appreciation of the koruna since the end of 2004 is also having an anti-inflationary effect.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department