The CNB comments on the September 2004 inflation figures
8.10.2004
Inflation in line with forecast in Q3
Inflation was strongly affected in September by the regular seasonal decline in prices of
package holidays and by a 0.6% fall in food prices from August. The inflation forecast prepared by
the CNB in July 2004 had foreseen a modest month-on-month rise in food prices. This goods category
hence caused the overall month-on-month decline in consumer prices in September to be rather higher
than the CNB had expected. Administered prices also had a modest downward effect on inflation.
However, owing to the strong effect of seasonal factors in the summer months it is more
appropriate to assess inflation in 2004 Q3 as a whole. From this perspective we can state that the
annual inflation forecast for September 2004 was met almost exactly. The deviations within the
inflation structure were also minimal - downward for food and administered prices, and upward for
fuel prices due to high world oil prices. An important fact for the assessment of the demand
pressures on inflation is that adjusted inflation excluding fuel prices was exactly in line with
the CNB's expectations for Q3.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, CNB Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the September 2004 inflation figures
Inflation in line with forecast in Q3
Inflation was strongly affected in September by the regular seasonal decline in prices of package holidays and by a 0.6% fall in food prices from August. The inflation forecast prepared by the CNB in July 2004 had foreseen a modest month-on-month rise in food prices. This goods category hence caused the overall month-on-month decline in consumer prices in September to be rather higher than the CNB had expected. Administered prices also had a modest downward effect on inflation.
However, owing to the strong effect of seasonal factors in the summer months it is more appropriate to assess inflation in 2004 Q3 as a whole. From this perspective we can state that the annual inflation forecast for September 2004 was met almost exactly. The deviations within the inflation structure were also minimal - downward for food and administered prices, and upward for fuel prices due to high world oil prices. An important fact for the assessment of the demand pressures on inflation is that adjusted inflation excluding fuel prices was exactly in line with the CNB's expectations for Q3.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, CNB Monetary and Statistics Department