The CNB comments on the November 2003 inflation figures
8.12.2003
The Czech Statistical Office today released the consumer price inflation figures for November.
Month-on-month inflation deviated from the CNB's October prediction, largely because of a much
higher-than-expected rise in food prices. The annual inflation outturn was also higher than
forecast in November, as a result of higher-than-expected food price inflation in both October and
November. A smaller-than-expected decline in regulated prices in October also played a role. By
contrast, prices of other goods and services showed slower growth as compared to the prediction,
although the difference here was negligible.
The rise in food prices reflects the one-off pass-through of cost effects, which had steadily
been mounting. The developments confirmed that the exact extent of this step, which had been
expected, is difficult to gauge. These deviations of actual inflation from the prediction do not
imply any major change in the central bank's view regarding future inflation, despite the fact that
the pass-through of the current deviations of the actual figures from the prediction will mean an
increase in the annual indices in the months ahead.
Annual inflation is still expected to gradually gather pace. In 2004 it will be strongly
affected, among other things, by the one-off impact of adjustments to indirect taxes. In 2005 it is
expected to ease back slightly.
The CNB comments on the November 2003 inflation figures
The Czech Statistical Office today released the consumer price inflation figures for November. Month-on-month inflation deviated from the CNB's October prediction, largely because of a much higher-than-expected rise in food prices. The annual inflation outturn was also higher than forecast in November, as a result of higher-than-expected food price inflation in both October and November. A smaller-than-expected decline in regulated prices in October also played a role. By contrast, prices of other goods and services showed slower growth as compared to the prediction, although the difference here was negligible.
The rise in food prices reflects the one-off pass-through of cost effects, which had steadily been mounting. The developments confirmed that the exact extent of this step, which had been expected, is difficult to gauge. These deviations of actual inflation from the prediction do not imply any major change in the central bank's view regarding future inflation, despite the fact that the pass-through of the current deviations of the actual figures from the prediction will mean an increase in the annual indices in the months ahead.
Annual inflation is still expected to gradually gather pace. In 2004 it will be strongly affected, among other things, by the one-off impact of adjustments to indirect taxes. In 2005 it is expected to ease back slightly.
Pavel Zúbek
CNB communications division