Inflation slows to 2.3% in September, helped by food prices

The CNB comments on the September 2025 inflation figures

Annual inflation fell further to 2.3% in September (from 2.5% in August), its lowest level since April this year. This was lower than our forecast (2.6%). We expect inflation to remain close to recent values for the rest of the year. Given the persisting elevated core inflation, there are still reasons for a cautious monetary policy approach.

Repeated fluctuations in the inflation rate this year are largely caused by food and beverage prices. The same was true in September, when a further slowdown in food price growth (to 2.7% y-o-y from 4.7% in August) led to a decline in headline inflation. We do not expect any further significant slowdown in food price growth for the rest of the year.

Volatile items helped lower headline inflation, but core inflation was unchanged at 2.8%. In particular, inflation in market services remained stable and elevated (4.4% y-o-y). Core inflation has been affected by rising housing costs this year, but they are also continuing to stabilise as expected. In September, year-on-year growth in imputed rent remained at 4.9% for the fourth month in a row.

The evolution of core inflation shows that overall price developments in the domestic economy have not yet fully stabilised and require tight monetary conditions.

Petr Sklenář, Executive Director of the Monetary Department

September 2025 year-on-year in %
actual value MPR Summer 2025
CPI 2.3 2.6
Administered prices 0.9 0.6
First-round impacts of changes to indirect taxes 0.2 0.2
Adjusted for changes to indirect taxes    
Prices of food, beverages, tobacco 2.2 3.5
Core inflation 2.8 2.8
Fuel prices -3.7 -3.6
Monetary policy-relevant inflation 2.1 2.4