The CNB comments on the November 2025 inflation figures
Inflation fell close to the CNB’s target in November, thus confirming the expectations of the autumn forecast. It reached 2.1% year on year, compared with October prices even dropped by 0.3%.
The decline in headline inflation was driven by the month-on-month decline in prices of food, beverages and tobacco, which almost offset the previous October increase. A decline was recorded not only for food alone (-0.9%), but also for alcoholic beverages (-1.9%). At the same time, prices of core goods fell month on month (-0.4%). This probably reflected discount promotions during November, which may have had a greater impact this year compared with usual seasonality. The appreciation of the koruna this year, not only against the euro but even more markedly against the US dollar, is also having a cooling effect on the prices of imported food and other goods.
By contrast, growth in market services prices slowed only slightly, with this area remaining a risk factor. The year-on-year growth in this category continues to be fostered by imputed rent, whose annual increase is not slowing (4.8%), reflecting strong demand on the property market and the probably already limited capacity of the construction sector.
We welcome the decline in inflation but would like to point out that it is driven by volatile items of the consumer basket such as food and alcohol. The good news on low price growth in these categories may easily be followed by a surprise in the opposite direction. It is therefore important that inflation also subsides permanently in sectors where it is persistently elevated, especially in services.
Jakub Matějů, Deputy Executive Director of the Monetary Department and Director of the Macroeconomic Forecasting Division
Inflation comes in very close to the CNB’s target
The CNB comments on the November 2025 inflation figures
Inflation fell close to the CNB’s target in November, thus confirming the expectations of the autumn forecast. It reached 2.1% year on year, compared with October prices even dropped by 0.3%.
The decline in headline inflation was driven by the month-on-month decline in prices of food, beverages and tobacco, which almost offset the previous October increase. A decline was recorded not only for food alone (-0.9%), but also for alcoholic beverages (-1.9%). At the same time, prices of core goods fell month on month (-0.4%). This probably reflected discount promotions during November, which may have had a greater impact this year compared with usual seasonality. The appreciation of the koruna this year, not only against the euro but even more markedly against the US dollar, is also having a cooling effect on the prices of imported food and other goods.
By contrast, growth in market services prices slowed only slightly, with this area remaining a risk factor. The year-on-year growth in this category continues to be fostered by imputed rent, whose annual increase is not slowing (4.8%), reflecting strong demand on the property market and the probably already limited capacity of the construction sector.
We welcome the decline in inflation but would like to point out that it is driven by volatile items of the consumer basket such as food and alcohol. The good news on low price growth in these categories may easily be followed by a surprise in the opposite direction. It is therefore important that inflation also subsides permanently in sectors where it is persistently elevated, especially in services.
Jakub Matějů, Deputy Executive Director of the Monetary Department and Director of the Macroeconomic Forecasting Division