The CNB comments on the October 2025 inflation figures
Annual inflation rose to 2.5% in October (from 2.3% in September), offsetting the decline recorded in September. This was higher than our forecast (2.2%). We expect inflation to remain close to recent values for the rest of the year. Given the persisting elevated core inflation, there are still reasons for a cautious monetary policy approach.
Repeated fluctuations in inflation this year are caused by food and beverage prices. These factors led to a gradual decline in year-on-year inflation during the summer, while in October they had the opposite effect. In October, the increase in prices accelerated for both food (to 3.6% y-o-y from 2.7% in September) and alcohol and tobacco (to 4.3% y-o-y from 3.3%).We do not expect any change in the trend in food prices for the rest of the year, and price growth should remain at similar levels.
Volatile items have had a strong impact on headline inflation in recent months, but core inflation was unchanged again at 2.8%. The key factor is elevated inflation in market services (4.4% y-o-y), which has been stable in recent months. Core inflation has been affected strongly by rising housing costs this year. Growth in imputed rent slowed to 4.8% y-o-y in October, compared to 4.9% in the previous four months.
The evolution of core inflation shows that overall price developments in the domestic economy have not yet fully stabilised and require tight monetary conditions.
Petr Sklenář, Executive Director of the Monetary Department
Food prices push inflation up to 2.5% in October
The CNB comments on the October 2025 inflation figures
Annual inflation rose to 2.5% in October (from 2.3% in September), offsetting the decline recorded in September. This was higher than our forecast (2.2%). We expect inflation to remain close to recent values for the rest of the year. Given the persisting elevated core inflation, there are still reasons for a cautious monetary policy approach.
Repeated fluctuations in inflation this year are caused by food and beverage prices. These factors led to a gradual decline in year-on-year inflation during the summer, while in October they had the opposite effect. In October, the increase in prices accelerated for both food (to 3.6% y-o-y from 2.7% in September) and alcohol and tobacco (to 4.3% y-o-y from 3.3%).We do not expect any change in the trend in food prices for the rest of the year, and price growth should remain at similar levels.
Volatile items have had a strong impact on headline inflation in recent months, but core inflation was unchanged again at 2.8%. The key factor is elevated inflation in market services (4.4% y-o-y), which has been stable in recent months. Core inflation has been affected strongly by rising housing costs this year. Growth in imputed rent slowed to 4.8% y-o-y in October, compared to 4.9% in the previous four months.
The evolution of core inflation shows that overall price developments in the domestic economy have not yet fully stabilised and require tight monetary conditions.
Petr Sklenář, Executive Director of the Monetary Department