The CNB comments on the September 2010 inflation figures
Inflation comes in just below the CNB forecast again at the end of Q3
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 2.0% year on year in September 2010. Headline inflation picked up slightly compared to August and is at the CNB’s inflation target level. At 0.9%, monetary-policy relevant inflation, i.e. inflation adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes, was close to the lower boundary of the tolerance band around the inflation target.
Annual headline inflation was 0.1 percentage point lower in September 2010 than in the CNB’s current forecast. This minor deviation of the actual figure from the forecast was due both to slower-than-expected growth in regulated prices – recorded already in July and August – and to slightly lower net inflation. Within net inflation, food and fuel prices recorded somewhat slower annual growth in September than expected by the CNB.
The September data indicate that the forecast for the third quarter of this year has largely materialised. The forecast expects inflation to rise slightly above the CNB’s inflation target in the final quarter of this year. At the beginning of next year, however, inflation should fall back towards the 2% target as the effects of changes to indirect taxes in effect since January 2010 gradually unwind. In the remainder of this year and next year, monetary-policy relevant inflation will gradually increase, converging to the inflation target in the second half of 2011.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the September 2010 inflation figures
Inflation comes in just below the CNB forecast again at the end of Q3
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 2.0% year on year in September 2010. Headline inflation picked up slightly compared to August and is at the CNB’s inflation target level. At 0.9%, monetary-policy relevant inflation, i.e. inflation adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes, was close to the lower boundary of the tolerance band around the inflation target.
Annual headline inflation was 0.1 percentage point lower in September 2010 than in the CNB’s current forecast. This minor deviation of the actual figure from the forecast was due both to slower-than-expected growth in regulated prices – recorded already in July and August – and to slightly lower net inflation. Within net inflation, food and fuel prices recorded somewhat slower annual growth in September than expected by the CNB.
The September data indicate that the forecast for the third quarter of this year has largely materialised. The forecast expects inflation to rise slightly above the CNB’s inflation target in the final quarter of this year. At the beginning of next year, however, inflation should fall back towards the 2% target as the effects of changes to indirect taxes in effect since January 2010 gradually unwind. In the remainder of this year and next year, monetary-policy relevant inflation will gradually increase, converging to the inflation target in the second half of 2011.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department