The CNB comments on the September 2011 inflation figures
Inflation comes in below the CNB forecast in September 2011
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 1.8% year on year in September 2011. Headline inflation thus rose slightly compared to August. Monetary-policy relevant inflation, i.e. inflation adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes, also increased slightly in September (to 1.8%), and is still just below the inflation target.
Annual headline inflation was 0.4 percentage point lower in September this year than the CNB’s current forecast. The downward deviation from the forecast was chiefly due to food prices. Lower-than-expected annual regulated price inflation – affected by a lower-than-forecasted rise in regulated prices in July this year – acted in the same direction. Adjusted inflation excluding fuels and fuel prices were also somewhat lower in September than the CNB had expected.
Despite the above deviations, the September inflation data are broadly in line with the message of the CNB forecast overall. Its assessment of the situation in the previous period is that inflation pressures from the domestic economy were insignificant and that commodity and food prices were the main sources of inflation. According to the CNB forecast, monetary-policy relevant inflation will be close to the inflation target over the whole forecast horizon. Headline inflation will slightly exceed 3% next year as a result of an increase in the reduced VAT rate and will return to the target at the start of 2013.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the September 2011 inflation figures
Inflation comes in below the CNB forecast in September 2011
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 1.8% year on year in September 2011. Headline inflation thus rose slightly compared to August. Monetary-policy relevant inflation, i.e. inflation adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes, also increased slightly in September (to 1.8%), and is still just below the inflation target.
Annual headline inflation was 0.4 percentage point lower in September this year than the CNB’s current forecast. The downward deviation from the forecast was chiefly due to food prices. Lower-than-expected annual regulated price inflation – affected by a lower-than-forecasted rise in regulated prices in July this year – acted in the same direction. Adjusted inflation excluding fuels and fuel prices were also somewhat lower in September than the CNB had expected.
Despite the above deviations, the September inflation data are broadly in line with the message of the CNB forecast overall. Its assessment of the situation in the previous period is that inflation pressures from the domestic economy were insignificant and that commodity and food prices were the main sources of inflation. According to the CNB forecast, monetary-policy relevant inflation will be close to the inflation target over the whole forecast horizon. Headline inflation will slightly exceed 3% next year as a result of an increase in the reduced VAT rate and will return to the target at the start of 2013.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department