The CNB comments on the February 2011 inflation figures
Inflation comes in below the CNB forecast again in February 2011
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 1.8% year on year in February 2011. Headline inflation thus increased marginally compared to January and stands slightly below the CNB’s inflation target. Monetary-policy relevant inflation, i.e. inflation adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes, increased to 1.6% in February and is thus in the lower half of the tolerance band for the inflation target.
Annual headline inflation was 0.3 percentage point lower in February this year than the CNB’s current forecast. As in January, the lower-than-forecasted inflation is due mainly to food prices. Administered price inflation and adjusted inflation excluding fuels were also slightly lower than forecasted. The deviations of the actual figures for the above inflation components from the year-on-year forecast were in fact due to the January developments and were unchanged in February. The other components of inflation, i.e. the impacts of changes to indirect taxes and fuel prices, were in line with the forecast.
Despite the aforementioned deviations from the forecast, the message of the CNB’s forecast remains valid. The forecast predicts that annual headline inflation will be close to the inflation target in the remainder of this year and during 2012. At the same time, the forecast expects monetary-policy relevant inflation to converge to headline inflation, and therefore also to the CNB’s inflation target, during the first half of the year.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the February 2011 inflation figures
Inflation comes in below the CNB forecast again in February 2011
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 1.8% year on year in February 2011. Headline inflation thus increased marginally compared to January and stands slightly below the CNB’s inflation target. Monetary-policy relevant inflation, i.e. inflation adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes, increased to 1.6% in February and is thus in the lower half of the tolerance band for the inflation target.
Annual headline inflation was 0.3 percentage point lower in February this year than the CNB’s current forecast. As in January, the lower-than-forecasted inflation is due mainly to food prices. Administered price inflation and adjusted inflation excluding fuels were also slightly lower than forecasted. The deviations of the actual figures for the above inflation components from the year-on-year forecast were in fact due to the January developments and were unchanged in February. The other components of inflation, i.e. the impacts of changes to indirect taxes and fuel prices, were in line with the forecast.
Despite the aforementioned deviations from the forecast, the message of the CNB’s forecast remains valid. The forecast predicts that annual headline inflation will be close to the inflation target in the remainder of this year and during 2012. At the same time, the forecast expects monetary-policy relevant inflation to converge to headline inflation, and therefore also to the CNB’s inflation target, during the first half of the year.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department