Annual growth in economic activity comes in slightly below CNB forecast
According to the CZSO’s estimate released today, GDP adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects rose by 4.5% year on year in 2015 Q3. Economic activity in quarter-on-quarter terms increased by 0.5%. Compared to the CNB forecast, the reported economic growth in 2015 Q3 is 0.3 percentage point lower in year-on-year terms and 0.1 percentage point lower in quarter-on-quarter terms. This difference in the year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter deviations from the CNB forecast is due to a minor revision of the GDP time series for the previous quarter.
The downward deviation of annual GDP growth in 2015 Q3 from the CNB forecast was due to slightly slower-than-predicted growth in household consumption. Annual growth of total investment was also slightly below the CNB forecast. However, fixed investment was a moderately positive surprise and the downward deviation was thus due solely to the traditionally volatile inventories. However, government consumption and exports and imports increased somewhat faster than forecasted. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth was only slightly lower compared to the CNB forecast.
Overall, the Czech economy continued to show robust growth during the summer, in line with the CNB’s expectations. According to the central bank’s forecast, GDP will grow by
4.7% this year owing to accelerating external demand, low commodity prices, still easy monetary conditions and growth in government investment financed chiefly from EU funds. A slowdown in economic growth to just below 3% next year will reflect a fall in government investment and the unwinding of the effect of an increase in inventories this year as well as the fall in oil prices. The economy will maintain a similar rate of growth in 2017, with positive contributions from all components of domestic demand.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary Department
The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2015 Q3
Annual growth in economic activity comes in slightly below CNB forecast
According to the CZSO’s estimate released today, GDP adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects rose by 4.5% year on year in 2015 Q3. Economic activity in quarter-on-quarter terms increased by 0.5%. Compared to the CNB forecast, the reported economic growth in 2015 Q3 is 0.3 percentage point lower in year-on-year terms and 0.1 percentage point lower in quarter-on-quarter terms. This difference in the year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter deviations from the CNB forecast is due to a minor revision of the GDP time series for the previous quarter.
The downward deviation of annual GDP growth in 2015 Q3 from the CNB forecast was due to slightly slower-than-predicted growth in household consumption. Annual growth of total investment was also slightly below the CNB forecast. However, fixed investment was a moderately positive surprise and the downward deviation was thus due solely to the traditionally volatile inventories. However, government consumption and exports and imports increased somewhat faster than forecasted. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth was only slightly lower compared to the CNB forecast.
Overall, the Czech economy continued to show robust growth during the summer, in line with the CNB’s expectations. According to the central bank’s forecast, GDP will grow by
4.7% this year owing to accelerating external demand, low commodity prices, still easy monetary conditions and growth in government investment financed chiefly from EU funds. A slowdown in economic growth to just below 3% next year will reflect a fall in government investment and the unwinding of the effect of an increase in inventories this year as well as the fall in oil prices. The economy will maintain a similar rate of growth in 2017, with positive contributions from all components of domestic demand.
Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary Department