The economy rebounds roughly in line with CNB forecast
According to the CZSO’ s estimate released today, GDP adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects dropped by 4.1% in year-on-year terms in 2009 Q3, while recording a slight increase of 0.8% in quarter-on-quarter terms. Compared to the CNB forecast, the reported annual GDP decline is 0.8 percentage point lower, whereas its quarter-on-quarter increase lagged slightly behind the CNB’ s expectations. This reflects the revision made by the CZSO to the GDP time series from 2008 Q1 to 2009 Q2. This revision shows, that the data were revised rather downwards, whereas in the first half of this year they were revised upwards.
As regards the structure of economic activity, annual real growth in household and particularly government consumption was higher than the CNB had expected. By contrast, gross capital formation still recorded a dramatic fall in line with the CNB’ s expectations owing to the evolution of fixed investment and particularly inventories. Annual growth rates of exports and imports of goods and services declined less than expected, with both cases recording a pronounced increase in quarter-on-quarter terms. As a result, however, net exports recorded a more moderate improvement in year-on-year terms than assumed by the CNB.
The released data confirm the CNB’ s view, that an appreciable quarter–on-quarter growth in the Czech economy can be expected in the second half of this year. However, the sharp fall in GDP observed at the start of the year will pass through to an annual decline in GDP also in the remainder of this year.
Petr Vojtíšek, Deputy Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2009 Q3
The economy rebounds roughly in line with CNB forecast
According to the CZSO’ s estimate released today, GDP adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects dropped by 4.1% in year-on-year terms in 2009 Q3, while recording a slight increase of 0.8% in quarter-on-quarter terms. Compared to the CNB forecast, the reported annual GDP decline is 0.8 percentage point lower, whereas its quarter-on-quarter increase lagged slightly behind the CNB’ s expectations. This reflects the revision made by the CZSO to the GDP time series from 2008 Q1 to 2009 Q2. This revision shows, that the data were revised rather downwards, whereas in the first half of this year they were revised upwards.
As regards the structure of economic activity, annual real growth in household and particularly government consumption was higher than the CNB had expected. By contrast, gross capital formation still recorded a dramatic fall in line with the CNB’ s expectations owing to the evolution of fixed investment and particularly inventories. Annual growth rates of exports and imports of goods and services declined less than expected, with both cases recording a pronounced increase in quarter-on-quarter terms. As a result, however, net exports recorded a more moderate improvement in year-on-year terms than assumed by the CNB.
The released data confirm the CNB’ s view, that an appreciable quarter–on-quarter growth in the Czech economy can be expected in the second half of this year. However, the sharp fall in GDP observed at the start of the year will pass through to an annual decline in GDP also in the remainder of this year.
Petr Vojtíšek, Deputy Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department