The CNB comments on the November 2009 inflation figures
Inflation comes in above CNB forecast in November
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 0.5% year on year in November. Having turned negative in October, inflation thus returned to positive territory in November. Nevertheless, it stands well below the lower boundary of the tolerance band set by the CNB around its target of 3%.
Annual headline inflation was 0.4 percentage point higher in November 2009 than the CNB’s current forecast. This deviation was due mainly to higher-than-expected fuel prices and higher adjusted inflation excluding fuels. Regulated prices also rose at a slightly faster pace than forecasted.
Despite the deviation from the forecast, the price developments observed in November are in line with the message of the current forecast. Inflation is forecasted to be very low in the last quarter of 2009. The CNB expects headline inflation to rise gradually during 2010 and slightly exceed the inflation target of 2% at the end of the year. Monetary-policy relevant inflation will be below headline inflation owing to growth in indirect taxes, and will thus gradually approach the CNB target from below.
Petr Vojtíšek, Deputy Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the November 2009 inflation figures
Inflation comes in above CNB forecast in November
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 0.5% year on year in November. Having turned negative in October, inflation thus returned to positive territory in November. Nevertheless, it stands well below the lower boundary of the tolerance band set by the CNB around its target of 3%.
Annual headline inflation was 0.4 percentage point higher in November 2009 than the CNB’s current forecast. This deviation was due mainly to higher-than-expected fuel prices and higher adjusted inflation excluding fuels. Regulated prices also rose at a slightly faster pace than forecasted.
Despite the deviation from the forecast, the price developments observed in November are in line with the message of the current forecast. Inflation is forecasted to be very low in the last quarter of 2009. The CNB expects headline inflation to rise gradually during 2010 and slightly exceed the inflation target of 2% at the end of the year. Monetary-policy relevant inflation will be below headline inflation owing to growth in indirect taxes, and will thus gradually approach the CNB target from below.
Petr Vojtíšek, Deputy Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department