According to the CZSO's preliminary estimate released today, real GDP increased by 6.0% year on
year in 2007 Q2. Seasonally and working-day adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 1.4%. At the
same time as publishing its estimate for the past quarter, the CZSO revised its figures for 2007 Q1
based on updated data sources. The Q1 GDP estimate has been increased from 6.1% to 6.4%.
The year-on-year figure for 2007 Q2 is slightly (0.2 percentage point) lower than the CNB's July
forecast. The quarter-on-quarter change was a mere 0.1 percentage point lower than the CNB had
expected.
Partial deviations from the CNB forecast were recorded in the structure of economic growth. In
line with CNB expectations, there was further rapid growth in household consumption. The rate of
growth of gross fixed capital formation lagged somewhat behind the CNB's July forecast, but this
deviation was more than offset by a sizeable increase in inventory investment. By contrast,
government consumption recorded a slight year-on-year decrease in Q2, whereas the CNB had
forecasted a slight rise. In line with the CNB's July forecast, there was continued rapid growth in
foreign trade turnover growth in goods and services, with net exports also broadly unchanged year
on year as expected.
According to the CZSO, the 6.0% year-on-year growth in gross value added at constant prices was
due mainly to the three highest-volume industries - manufacturing (+10.5% - linked with the launch
of new production facilities primarily in export-oriented branches), wholesale and retail trade and
repair of motor vehicles (+14.2%) and business services (+11.3%).
Petr Vojtíšek, Deputy Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2007 Q2
Economic growth in line with CNB forecast
According to the CZSO's preliminary estimate released today, real GDP increased by 6.0% year on year in 2007 Q2. Seasonally and working-day adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 1.4%. At the same time as publishing its estimate for the past quarter, the CZSO revised its figures for 2007 Q1 based on updated data sources. The Q1 GDP estimate has been increased from 6.1% to 6.4%.
The year-on-year figure for 2007 Q2 is slightly (0.2 percentage point) lower than the CNB's July forecast. The quarter-on-quarter change was a mere 0.1 percentage point lower than the CNB had expected.
Partial deviations from the CNB forecast were recorded in the structure of economic growth. In line with CNB expectations, there was further rapid growth in household consumption. The rate of growth of gross fixed capital formation lagged somewhat behind the CNB's July forecast, but this deviation was more than offset by a sizeable increase in inventory investment. By contrast, government consumption recorded a slight year-on-year decrease in Q2, whereas the CNB had forecasted a slight rise. In line with the CNB's July forecast, there was continued rapid growth in foreign trade turnover growth in goods and services, with net exports also broadly unchanged year on year as expected.
According to the CZSO, the 6.0% year-on-year growth in gross value added at constant prices was due mainly to the three highest-volume industries - manufacturing (+10.5% - linked with the launch of new production facilities primarily in export-oriented branches), wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles (+14.2%) and business services (+11.3%).
Petr Vojtíšek, Deputy Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department