The CNB comments on the October 2007 inflation figures

Inflation comes in above CNB forecast

 

According to figures released today, annual inflation rose to 4.0% in October 2007, from 2.8% in September. This means that it is at the upper boundary of the tolerance band set by the CNB around its target of 3%. The contribution of the primary effects of indirect tax changes to annual inflation was more than 1 percentage point. Inflation adjusted for these effects – referred to as monetary policy-relevant inflation – thus rose to around 2.9%, i.e. close to the CNB’s target.

In month-on-month terms, the price level increased by 0.6%. This was due mainly to a rise in prices of food, in particular dairy products, bread products and vegetables. Increases were also recorded for prices of natural gas, fuels and heat and prices of seasonal winter clothing and footwear. By contrast, a decline in prices of recreation and culture exerted downward pressure on the price level in October.

Annual inflation in October 2007 was 0.2 percentage point higher than the CNB’s October forecast. This deviation was due to stronger-than-expected growth in food prices. On the other hand, adjusted inflation excluding fuels was slightly lower than forecasted, according to preliminary calculations. Regulated prices, the effects of indirect tax changes and fuel prices were in line with the CNB’s forecast in October.

Tomáš Holub, Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department