According to the CZSO's preliminary estimate, real GDP increased by 5.8% year on year in 2006
Q4. The data for the two previous quarters have been revised upwards slightly. Seasonally and
working-day adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 1.4%. Annual GDP growth was 6.1% in 2006,
the same as in 2005.
The year-on-year outcome for 2006 Q4 is only slightly (0.1 percentage point) higher than the CNB'
s January forecast, and the same applies to the quarterly figure. Somewhat more significant
deviations from the CNB forecast were recorded in the structure of economic growth, although these
deviations cannot be assessed as fundamental either.
The continuing increase in household consumption growth, which reached 5.4% at the end of last
year, exceeded the CNB's expectations. Government consumption also grew slightly faster than
forecasted. On the other hand, the CNB's assumption of a stable rapid increase in gross fixed
capital investment, whose growth rate attacked the 8% level, did materialise. In line with the CNB's
January forecast, there was also a marked pick-up in foreign trade turnover growth in goods and
services compared to the previous quarter. However, faster growth in real imports of goods and
services over that in exports led to a year-on-year widening of the net export deficit, whereas the
CNB's forecast had been for a slight decline.
On the gross value added formation side, rapid growth was again recorded in manufacturing in
2006 Q4, linked with the launching of new facilities, particularly in export-oriented industries.
However, construction and wholesale and retail trade also contributed significantly to the GDP
growth. By contrast, agriculture saw a year-on-year decline in value added at the end of 2006.
Tomáš Holub Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2006 Q4
Economic growth in line with CNB forecast
According to the CZSO's preliminary estimate, real GDP increased by 5.8% year on year in 2006 Q4. The data for the two previous quarters have been revised upwards slightly. Seasonally and working-day adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 1.4%. Annual GDP growth was 6.1% in 2006, the same as in 2005.
The year-on-year outcome for 2006 Q4 is only slightly (0.1 percentage point) higher than the CNB' s January forecast, and the same applies to the quarterly figure. Somewhat more significant deviations from the CNB forecast were recorded in the structure of economic growth, although these deviations cannot be assessed as fundamental either.
The continuing increase in household consumption growth, which reached 5.4% at the end of last year, exceeded the CNB's expectations. Government consumption also grew slightly faster than forecasted. On the other hand, the CNB's assumption of a stable rapid increase in gross fixed capital investment, whose growth rate attacked the 8% level, did materialise. In line with the CNB's January forecast, there was also a marked pick-up in foreign trade turnover growth in goods and services compared to the previous quarter. However, faster growth in real imports of goods and services over that in exports led to a year-on-year widening of the net export deficit, whereas the CNB's forecast had been for a slight decline.
On the gross value added formation side, rapid growth was again recorded in manufacturing in 2006 Q4, linked with the launching of new facilities, particularly in export-oriented industries. However, construction and wholesale and retail trade also contributed significantly to the GDP growth. By contrast, agriculture saw a year-on-year decline in value added at the end of 2006.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department