According to the CZSO's preliminary estimate, GDP increased by 4.9% year on year in Q3, compared
to 5.2% in Q2. This figure is fully in line with the CNB's October forecast, which had predicted
this slight moderation in economic growth. The main components of final domestic demand saw no
substantial deviations from the forecast, either. As expected, household consumption is gradually
recovering and government consumption has switched from last year's declines to year-on-year
growth. The gradual slowdown in fixed investment growth halted, although the growth rate of just
above 3% can still be assessed as moderate.
GDP growth continued to be driven by foreign trade in goods and services at constant prices,
although its contribution was lower than in H1 and also somewhat lower than expected by the
CNB.
As regards continuing economic growth going forward, the fact that there were signs of recovery
in foreign trade turnover - even faster than predicted in the CNB's forecast - is a favourable
factor. Another positive signal from the point of view of growth sustainability is the more
balanced growth in value added across the individual sectors, and in particular the rising
contribution of manufacturing to overall economic growth.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2005 Q3
Economic growth fully in line with CNB forecast
According to the CZSO's preliminary estimate, GDP increased by 4.9% year on year in Q3, compared to 5.2% in Q2. This figure is fully in line with the CNB's October forecast, which had predicted this slight moderation in economic growth. The main components of final domestic demand saw no substantial deviations from the forecast, either. As expected, household consumption is gradually recovering and government consumption has switched from last year's declines to year-on-year growth. The gradual slowdown in fixed investment growth halted, although the growth rate of just above 3% can still be assessed as moderate.
GDP growth continued to be driven by foreign trade in goods and services at constant prices, although its contribution was lower than in H1 and also somewhat lower than expected by the CNB.
As regards continuing economic growth going forward, the fact that there were signs of recovery in foreign trade turnover - even faster than predicted in the CNB's forecast - is a favourable factor. Another positive signal from the point of view of growth sustainability is the more balanced growth in value added across the individual sectors, and in particular the rising contribution of manufacturing to overall economic growth.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department