New GDP growth figures confirm the CNB's view of economic developments
According to CZSO figures released today, GDP rose by 4.4% year on year in the Czech Republic in
the first quarter of this year. This figure is slightly higher than estimated in the CNB's April
forecast, which had foreseen annual growth of around 4.1%. The deviation of the actual figure from
the forecast was, however, primarily due to base effects, i.e. the revision of the GDP figures for
the first quarter of 2004.
In line with the CNB's expectations, the growth was again mostly driven by exports, which,
despite the slow recovery abroad, are maintaining a buoyant growth rate. Subdued growth in imports
resulted from a further slowdown in domestic demand growth on the part of both households and the
government. In line with the forecast there was also a modest slowdown in investment activity.
Simultaneously with the publication of the data on GDP growth in 2005 Q1, the figures on GDP
growth in 2003 and 2004 have been updated. The estimate of real annual GDP growth in 2003 has been
reduced from 3.7% to 3.2% and, conversely, that in 2004 has been increased from 4.0% to 4.4%. This
revision is not expected to have a major effect on the CNB's forecast, since it views economic
growth on the basis of recent quarter-on-quarter data on GDP growth, which have not been influenced
too strongly by the revision. Nonetheless, it can be stated that the revised GDP series bring past
economic developments closer to the CNB's vision of the functioning of the domestic economy.
Tomáš Holub Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department
The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2005 Q1
New GDP growth figures confirm the CNB's view of economic developments
According to CZSO figures released today, GDP rose by 4.4% year on year in the Czech Republic in the first quarter of this year. This figure is slightly higher than estimated in the CNB's April forecast, which had foreseen annual growth of around 4.1%. The deviation of the actual figure from the forecast was, however, primarily due to base effects, i.e. the revision of the GDP figures for the first quarter of 2004.
In line with the CNB's expectations, the growth was again mostly driven by exports, which, despite the slow recovery abroad, are maintaining a buoyant growth rate. Subdued growth in imports resulted from a further slowdown in domestic demand growth on the part of both households and the government. In line with the forecast there was also a modest slowdown in investment activity.
Simultaneously with the publication of the data on GDP growth in 2005 Q1, the figures on GDP growth in 2003 and 2004 have been updated. The estimate of real annual GDP growth in 2003 has been reduced from 3.7% to 3.2% and, conversely, that in 2004 has been increased from 4.0% to 4.4%. This revision is not expected to have a major effect on the CNB's forecast, since it views economic growth on the basis of recent quarter-on-quarter data on GDP growth, which have not been influenced too strongly by the revision. Nonetheless, it can be stated that the revised GDP series bring past economic developments closer to the CNB's vision of the functioning of the domestic economy.
Tomáš Holub
Executive Director, Monetary and Statistics Department