The CNB comments on the December 2025 inflation figures
In December, annual inflation remained at 2.1%, which was close to our forecast (2.3%). This confirmed our expectation that headline inflation would remain close to 2% at the end of the year. Compared with November, average prices fell again by 0.3% month on month, due to lower prices of food and alcoholic beverages.
The average inflation rate in 2025 as a whole was 2.5%, similar to 2024 (2.4%) and the second-lowest figure in the past seven years.
Food and beverage prices caused repeated fluctuations in inflation during 2025. However, food price growth slowed at the end of the year, reaching 1.7% year on year in December (down from 2.2% in November), the lowest increase in the past year. The favourable developments in food prices contributed significantly to the decline in inflation in the second half of the year. In addition, in view of commodity prices, these relatively favourable developments in food prices could continue in early 2026.
However, there was no major change in trend except in the volatile items. Core inflation rose by 0.2 pp to 2.8% year on year in December, offsetting the slowdown recorded in November. This mainly affected goods prices within core inflation, which accelerated (to 0.4% year on year from 0.2% in November). Services inflation remains stable and elevated. It also picked up in December (to 4.5% year on year from 4.3% in November). The cost of owner-occupied housing (imputed rent) is being closely monitored. It grew by 5.0% year on year in December, compared with 4.8% in previous months.
Thanks to the favourable developments in energy prices and a change in administered prices, headline inflation may fall below 2% this year, even for a longer period. By contrast, core inflation is expected to remain broadly unchanged, at least at the start of the year.
Despite the favourable developments in headline inflation, still elevated core inflation provides strong arguments for a cautious monetary policy approach. In particular, the evolution of services inflation shows that overall price developments in the domestic economy have not yet fully stabilised and require tight monetary conditions.
Petr Sklenář, Executive Director of the Monetary Department
Inflation remains at 2.1% in December
The CNB comments on the December 2025 inflation figures
In December, annual inflation remained at 2.1%, which was close to our forecast (2.3%). This confirmed our expectation that headline inflation would remain close to 2% at the end of the year. Compared with November, average prices fell again by 0.3% month on month, due to lower prices of food and alcoholic beverages.
The average inflation rate in 2025 as a whole was 2.5%, similar to 2024 (2.4%) and the second-lowest figure in the past seven years.
Food and beverage prices caused repeated fluctuations in inflation during 2025. However, food price growth slowed at the end of the year, reaching 1.7% year on year in December (down from 2.2% in November), the lowest increase in the past year. The favourable developments in food prices contributed significantly to the decline in inflation in the second half of the year. In addition, in view of commodity prices, these relatively favourable developments in food prices could continue in early 2026.
However, there was no major change in trend except in the volatile items. Core inflation rose by 0.2 pp to 2.8% year on year in December, offsetting the slowdown recorded in November. This mainly affected goods prices within core inflation, which accelerated (to 0.4% year on year from 0.2% in November). Services inflation remains stable and elevated. It also picked up in December (to 4.5% year on year from 4.3% in November). The cost of owner-occupied housing (imputed rent) is being closely monitored. It grew by 5.0% year on year in December, compared with 4.8% in previous months.
Thanks to the favourable developments in energy prices and a change in administered prices, headline inflation may fall below 2% this year, even for a longer period. By contrast, core inflation is expected to remain broadly unchanged, at least at the start of the year.
Despite the favourable developments in headline inflation, still elevated core inflation provides strong arguments for a cautious monetary policy approach. In particular, the evolution of services inflation shows that overall price developments in the domestic economy have not yet fully stabilised and require tight monetary conditions.
Petr Sklenář, Executive Director of the Monetary Department